Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake
Interannual variations in air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) impact the global carbon cycle and climate system, and previous studies suggest that these variations may be predictable in the near term (from a year to a decade in advance). Here, we quantify and understand the sources of near-ter...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/10/45/2019/ |
id |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:esd71964 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:esd71964 2023-05-15T17:34:56+02:00 Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake Lovenduski, Nicole S. Yeager, Stephen G. Lindsay, Keith Long, Matthew C. 2019-01-24 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/10/45/2019/ eng eng doi:10.5194/esd-10-45-2019 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/10/45/2019/ eISSN: 2190-4987 Text 2019 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019 2020-07-20T16:22:58Z Interannual variations in air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) impact the global carbon cycle and climate system, and previous studies suggest that these variations may be predictable in the near term (from a year to a decade in advance). Here, we quantify and understand the sources of near-term predictability and predictive skill in air–sea CO 2 flux on global and regional scales by analyzing output from a novel set of retrospective decadal forecasts of an Earth system model. These forecasts exhibit the potential to predict year-to-year variations in the globally integrated air–sea CO 2 flux several years in advance, as indicated by the high correlation of the forecasts with a model reconstruction of past CO 2 flux evolution. This potential predictability exceeds that obtained solely from foreknowledge of variations in external forcing or a simple persistence forecast, with the longest-lasting forecast enhancement in the subantarctic Southern Ocean and the northern North Atlantic. Potential predictability in CO 2 flux variations is largely driven by predictability in the surface ocean partial pressure of CO 2 , which itself is a function of predictability in surface ocean dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. The potential predictability, however, is not realized as predictive skill, as indicated by the moderate to low correlation of the forecasts with an observationally based CO 2 flux product. Nevertheless, our results suggest that year-to-year variations in ocean carbon uptake have the potential to be predicted well in advance and establish a precedent for forecasting air–sea CO 2 flux in the near future. Text North Atlantic Southern Ocean Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Southern Ocean Earth System Dynamics 10 1 45 57 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Interannual variations in air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) impact the global carbon cycle and climate system, and previous studies suggest that these variations may be predictable in the near term (from a year to a decade in advance). Here, we quantify and understand the sources of near-term predictability and predictive skill in air–sea CO 2 flux on global and regional scales by analyzing output from a novel set of retrospective decadal forecasts of an Earth system model. These forecasts exhibit the potential to predict year-to-year variations in the globally integrated air–sea CO 2 flux several years in advance, as indicated by the high correlation of the forecasts with a model reconstruction of past CO 2 flux evolution. This potential predictability exceeds that obtained solely from foreknowledge of variations in external forcing or a simple persistence forecast, with the longest-lasting forecast enhancement in the subantarctic Southern Ocean and the northern North Atlantic. Potential predictability in CO 2 flux variations is largely driven by predictability in the surface ocean partial pressure of CO 2 , which itself is a function of predictability in surface ocean dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. The potential predictability, however, is not realized as predictive skill, as indicated by the moderate to low correlation of the forecasts with an observationally based CO 2 flux product. Nevertheless, our results suggest that year-to-year variations in ocean carbon uptake have the potential to be predicted well in advance and establish a precedent for forecasting air–sea CO 2 flux in the near future. |
format |
Text |
author |
Lovenduski, Nicole S. Yeager, Stephen G. Lindsay, Keith Long, Matthew C. |
spellingShingle |
Lovenduski, Nicole S. Yeager, Stephen G. Lindsay, Keith Long, Matthew C. Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake |
author_facet |
Lovenduski, Nicole S. Yeager, Stephen G. Lindsay, Keith Long, Matthew C. |
author_sort |
Lovenduski, Nicole S. |
title |
Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake |
title_short |
Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake |
title_full |
Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake |
title_fullStr |
Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake |
title_sort |
predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/10/45/2019/ |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
eISSN: 2190-4987 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/esd-10-45-2019 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/10/45/2019/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
45 |
op_container_end_page |
57 |
_version_ |
1766133929488678912 |