Cascading transitions in the climate system
We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1243/2018/ |
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:esd68261 2023-05-15T17:31:14+02:00 Cascading transitions in the climate system Dekker, Mark M. Heydt, Anna S. Dijkstra, Henk A. 2018-11-28 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1243/2018/ eng eng doi:10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1243/2018/ eISSN: 2190-4987 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 2020-07-20T16:23:04Z We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems is presented containing the double-fold, fold–Hopf, Hopf–fold and double-Hopf as the most generic cases. Statistical indicators which can be used as early warning indicators of cascading tipping events in stochastic, non-stationary systems are suggested. The concept of cascading tipping is illustrated through a conceptual model of the coupled North Atlantic Ocean – El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, demonstrating the possibility of such cascading events in the climate system. Text North Atlantic Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Earth System Dynamics 9 4 1243 1260 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems is presented containing the double-fold, fold–Hopf, Hopf–fold and double-Hopf as the most generic cases. Statistical indicators which can be used as early warning indicators of cascading tipping events in stochastic, non-stationary systems are suggested. The concept of cascading tipping is illustrated through a conceptual model of the coupled North Atlantic Ocean – El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, demonstrating the possibility of such cascading events in the climate system. |
format |
Text |
author |
Dekker, Mark M. Heydt, Anna S. Dijkstra, Henk A. |
spellingShingle |
Dekker, Mark M. Heydt, Anna S. Dijkstra, Henk A. Cascading transitions in the climate system |
author_facet |
Dekker, Mark M. Heydt, Anna S. Dijkstra, Henk A. |
author_sort |
Dekker, Mark M. |
title |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_short |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_full |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_fullStr |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_full_unstemmed |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_sort |
cascading transitions in the climate system |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1243/2018/ |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
eISSN: 2190-4987 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1243/2018/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
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9 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1243 |
op_container_end_page |
1260 |
_version_ |
1766128679700660224 |