Cascading transitions in the climate system
We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems...
| Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2018
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1243/2018/ |
| Summary: | We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems is presented containing the double-fold, fold–Hopf, Hopf–fold and double-Hopf as the most generic cases. Statistical indicators which can be used as early warning indicators of cascading tipping events in stochastic, non-stationary systems are suggested. The concept of cascading tipping is illustrated through a conceptual model of the coupled North Atlantic Ocean – El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, demonstrating the possibility of such cascading events in the climate system. |
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