Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods
Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence of trends during 1985–2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes of flood duration (i.e., short: 1–7, moderate: 8–20, and long: 21 days and above) are...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:esd59676 2023-05-15T17:35:30+02:00 Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods Najibi, Nasser Devineni, Naresh 2018-12-10 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-757-2018 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/757/2018/ eng eng doi:10.5194/esd-9-757-2018 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/757/2018/ eISSN: 2190-4987 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-757-2018 2020-07-20T16:23:15Z Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence of trends during 1985–2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes of flood duration (i.e., short: 1–7, moderate: 8–20, and long: 21 days and above) are also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall trend analysis is used to evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential monotonic trends in the frequency of flood, moments of duration, and frequency of specific flood duration types. We also evaluated if trends could be related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnections using a generalized linear model framework. Results show that flood frequency and the tails of the flood duration (long duration) have increased at both the global and the latitudinal scales. In the tropics, floods have increased 4-fold since the 2000s. This increase is 2.5-fold in the north midlatitudes. However, much of the trend in frequency and duration of the floods can be placed within the long-term climate variability context since the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation were the main atmospheric teleconnections explaining this trend. There is no monotonic trend in the frequency of short-duration floods across all the global and latitudinal scales. There is a significant increasing trend in the annual median of flood durations globally and each latitudinal belt, and this trend is not related to these teleconnections. While the DFO data come with a certain level of epistemic uncertainty due to imprecision in the estimation of floods, overall, the analysis provides insights for understanding the frequency and persistence in hydrologic extremes and how they relate to changes in the climate, organization of global and local dynamical systems, and country-scale socioeconomic factors. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Kendall ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) Pacific Earth System Dynamics 9 2 757 783 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence of trends during 1985–2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes of flood duration (i.e., short: 1–7, moderate: 8–20, and long: 21 days and above) are also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall trend analysis is used to evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential monotonic trends in the frequency of flood, moments of duration, and frequency of specific flood duration types. We also evaluated if trends could be related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnections using a generalized linear model framework. Results show that flood frequency and the tails of the flood duration (long duration) have increased at both the global and the latitudinal scales. In the tropics, floods have increased 4-fold since the 2000s. This increase is 2.5-fold in the north midlatitudes. However, much of the trend in frequency and duration of the floods can be placed within the long-term climate variability context since the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation were the main atmospheric teleconnections explaining this trend. There is no monotonic trend in the frequency of short-duration floods across all the global and latitudinal scales. There is a significant increasing trend in the annual median of flood durations globally and each latitudinal belt, and this trend is not related to these teleconnections. While the DFO data come with a certain level of epistemic uncertainty due to imprecision in the estimation of floods, overall, the analysis provides insights for understanding the frequency and persistence in hydrologic extremes and how they relate to changes in the climate, organization of global and local dynamical systems, and country-scale socioeconomic factors. |
format |
Text |
author |
Najibi, Nasser Devineni, Naresh |
spellingShingle |
Najibi, Nasser Devineni, Naresh Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods |
author_facet |
Najibi, Nasser Devineni, Naresh |
author_sort |
Najibi, Nasser |
title |
Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods |
title_short |
Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods |
title_full |
Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods |
title_fullStr |
Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods |
title_full_unstemmed |
Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods |
title_sort |
recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-757-2018 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/757/2018/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) |
geographic |
Kendall Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Kendall Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
eISSN: 2190-4987 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/esd-9-757-2018 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/757/2018/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-757-2018 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
757 |
op_container_end_page |
783 |
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1766134691300114432 |