Are there multiple scaling regimes in Holocene temperature records?
The concept of multiple scaling regimes in temperature time series is examined, with emphasis on the question whether or not a monoscaling model with one single scaling regime can be rejected from observation data from the Holocene. A model for internal variability with only one regime is simpler an...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:esd30832 2023-05-15T13:54:27+02:00 Are there multiple scaling regimes in Holocene temperature records? Nilsen, Tine Rypdal, Kristoffer Fredriksen, Hege-Beate 2018-09-27 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-419-2016 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/7/419/2016/ eng eng doi:10.5194/esd-7-419-2016 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/7/419/2016/ eISSN: 2190-4987 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-419-2016 2020-07-20T16:24:10Z The concept of multiple scaling regimes in temperature time series is examined, with emphasis on the question whether or not a monoscaling model with one single scaling regime can be rejected from observation data from the Holocene. A model for internal variability with only one regime is simpler and allows more certain predictions on timescales of centuries when combined with existing knowledge of radiative forcing. Our analysis of spectra from stable isotope ratios from Greenland and Antarctica ice cores shows that a scale break around centennial timescales is evident for the last glacial period, but not for the Holocene. Spectra from a number of late Holocene multiproxy temperature reconstructions, and one from the entire Holocene, have also been analysed, without identifying a significant scale break. Our results indicate that a single-regime scaling climate noise, with some non-scaling fluctuations on a millennial timescale superposed, cannot be rejected as a null model for the Holocene climate. The scale break observed from the glacial time ice-core records is likely caused by the influence of Dansgaard–Oeschger events and teleconnections to the Southern Hemisphere on centennial timescales. From our analysis we conclude that the two-regime model is not sufficiently justified for the Holocene to be used for temperature prediction on centennial timescales. Text Antarc* Antarctica Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland ice core Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Greenland Earth System Dynamics 7 2 419 439 |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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English |
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The concept of multiple scaling regimes in temperature time series is examined, with emphasis on the question whether or not a monoscaling model with one single scaling regime can be rejected from observation data from the Holocene. A model for internal variability with only one regime is simpler and allows more certain predictions on timescales of centuries when combined with existing knowledge of radiative forcing. Our analysis of spectra from stable isotope ratios from Greenland and Antarctica ice cores shows that a scale break around centennial timescales is evident for the last glacial period, but not for the Holocene. Spectra from a number of late Holocene multiproxy temperature reconstructions, and one from the entire Holocene, have also been analysed, without identifying a significant scale break. Our results indicate that a single-regime scaling climate noise, with some non-scaling fluctuations on a millennial timescale superposed, cannot be rejected as a null model for the Holocene climate. The scale break observed from the glacial time ice-core records is likely caused by the influence of Dansgaard–Oeschger events and teleconnections to the Southern Hemisphere on centennial timescales. From our analysis we conclude that the two-regime model is not sufficiently justified for the Holocene to be used for temperature prediction on centennial timescales. |
format |
Text |
author |
Nilsen, Tine Rypdal, Kristoffer Fredriksen, Hege-Beate |
spellingShingle |
Nilsen, Tine Rypdal, Kristoffer Fredriksen, Hege-Beate Are there multiple scaling regimes in Holocene temperature records? |
author_facet |
Nilsen, Tine Rypdal, Kristoffer Fredriksen, Hege-Beate |
author_sort |
Nilsen, Tine |
title |
Are there multiple scaling regimes in Holocene temperature records? |
title_short |
Are there multiple scaling regimes in Holocene temperature records? |
title_full |
Are there multiple scaling regimes in Holocene temperature records? |
title_fullStr |
Are there multiple scaling regimes in Holocene temperature records? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Are there multiple scaling regimes in Holocene temperature records? |
title_sort |
are there multiple scaling regimes in holocene temperature records? |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-419-2016 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/7/419/2016/ |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland ice core |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland ice core |
op_source |
eISSN: 2190-4987 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/esd-7-419-2016 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/7/419/2016/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-419-2016 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
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7 |
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2 |
container_start_page |
419 |
op_container_end_page |
439 |
_version_ |
1766260339969622016 |