Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review
Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet,...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:esd113157 2024-09-15T18:10:04+00:00 Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review Wunderling, Nico Heydt, Anna S. Aksenov, Yevgeny Barker, Stephen Bastiaansen, Robbin Brovkin, Victor Brunetti, Maura Couplet, Victor Kleinen, Thomas Lear, Caroline H. Lohmann, Johannes Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria Sinet, Sacha Swingedouw, Didier Winkelmann, Ricarda Anand, Pallavi Barichivich, Jonathan Bathiany, Sebastian Baudena, Mara Bruun, John T. Chiessi, Cristiano M. Coxall, Helen K. Docquier, David Donges, Jonathan F. Falkena, Swinda K. J. Klose, Ann Kristin Obura, David Rocha, Juan Rynders, Stefanie Steinert, Norman Julius Willeit, Matteo 2024-01-23 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/41/2024/ eng eng doi:10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/41/2024/ eISSN: 2190-4987 Text 2024 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 2024-08-28T05:24:15Z Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 ∘ C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 ∘ C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge. Text Greenland Ice Ice Sheet permafrost Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Earth System Dynamics 15 1 41 74 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 ∘ C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 ∘ C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge. |
format |
Text |
author |
Wunderling, Nico Heydt, Anna S. Aksenov, Yevgeny Barker, Stephen Bastiaansen, Robbin Brovkin, Victor Brunetti, Maura Couplet, Victor Kleinen, Thomas Lear, Caroline H. Lohmann, Johannes Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria Sinet, Sacha Swingedouw, Didier Winkelmann, Ricarda Anand, Pallavi Barichivich, Jonathan Bathiany, Sebastian Baudena, Mara Bruun, John T. Chiessi, Cristiano M. Coxall, Helen K. Docquier, David Donges, Jonathan F. Falkena, Swinda K. J. Klose, Ann Kristin Obura, David Rocha, Juan Rynders, Stefanie Steinert, Norman Julius Willeit, Matteo |
spellingShingle |
Wunderling, Nico Heydt, Anna S. Aksenov, Yevgeny Barker, Stephen Bastiaansen, Robbin Brovkin, Victor Brunetti, Maura Couplet, Victor Kleinen, Thomas Lear, Caroline H. Lohmann, Johannes Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria Sinet, Sacha Swingedouw, Didier Winkelmann, Ricarda Anand, Pallavi Barichivich, Jonathan Bathiany, Sebastian Baudena, Mara Bruun, John T. Chiessi, Cristiano M. Coxall, Helen K. Docquier, David Donges, Jonathan F. Falkena, Swinda K. J. Klose, Ann Kristin Obura, David Rocha, Juan Rynders, Stefanie Steinert, Norman Julius Willeit, Matteo Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
author_facet |
Wunderling, Nico Heydt, Anna S. Aksenov, Yevgeny Barker, Stephen Bastiaansen, Robbin Brovkin, Victor Brunetti, Maura Couplet, Victor Kleinen, Thomas Lear, Caroline H. Lohmann, Johannes Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria Sinet, Sacha Swingedouw, Didier Winkelmann, Ricarda Anand, Pallavi Barichivich, Jonathan Bathiany, Sebastian Baudena, Mara Bruun, John T. Chiessi, Cristiano M. Coxall, Helen K. Docquier, David Donges, Jonathan F. Falkena, Swinda K. J. Klose, Ann Kristin Obura, David Rocha, Juan Rynders, Stefanie Steinert, Norman Julius Willeit, Matteo |
author_sort |
Wunderling, Nico |
title |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
title_short |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
title_full |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
title_fullStr |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
title_sort |
climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/41/2024/ |
genre |
Greenland Ice Ice Sheet permafrost |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Ice Sheet permafrost |
op_source |
eISSN: 2190-4987 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/41/2024/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
41 |
op_container_end_page |
74 |
_version_ |
1810447674955005952 |