PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments
Circum-Arctic permafrost stores large amounts of frozen carbon that must be maintained to avoid catastrophic climate change. Solar geoengineering has the potential to cool the Arctic surface by increasing planetary albedo but could also reduce tundra productivity. Here, we improve the data-constrain...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:esd106118 2023-05-15T13:11:35+02:00 PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments Liu, Aobo Moore, John C. Chen, Yating 2023-01-24 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/39/2023/ eng eng doi:10.5194/esd-14-39-2023 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/39/2023/ eISSN: 2190-4987 Text 2023 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023 2023-01-30T17:22:43Z Circum-Arctic permafrost stores large amounts of frozen carbon that must be maintained to avoid catastrophic climate change. Solar geoengineering has the potential to cool the Arctic surface by increasing planetary albedo but could also reduce tundra productivity. Here, we improve the data-constrained PInc-PanTher model of permafrost carbon storage by including estimates of plant productivity and rhizosphere priming on soil carbon. Six earth system models are used to drive the model, running G6solar (solar dimming) and G6sulfur (stratospheric sulfate aerosols) experiments, which reduce radiative forcing from SSP5-8.5 (no mitigation) to SSP2-4.5 (substantive mitigation) levels. By 2100, simulations indicate a loss of 9.2 ± 0.4 million km 2 (mean ± standard error) of permafrost area and 81 ± 8 Pg of soil carbon under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In comparison, under SSP2-4.5, G6solar, and G6sulfur, permafrost area loss would be mitigated by approximately 39 %, 37 %, and 34 % and soil carbon loss by 42 %, 54 %, and 47 %, respectively, relative to SSP5-8.5. Uncertainties in permafrost soil C loss estimates arise mainly from changes in vegetation productivity. Increased carbon flux from vegetation to soil raises soil C storage, while the priming effects of root exudates lowers it, with a net mitigating effect on soil C loss. Despite model differences, the protective effects of G6solar and G6sulfur on permafrost area and soil C storage are consistent and significant for all ESMs. G6 experiments mitigate ∼ <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M11" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn><mo>/</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">3</mn></mrow></math> <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="24cd820928a87a23fd3890478006b780"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="esd-14-39-2023-ie00001.svg" ... Text albedo Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic Earth System Dynamics 14 1 39 53 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Circum-Arctic permafrost stores large amounts of frozen carbon that must be maintained to avoid catastrophic climate change. Solar geoengineering has the potential to cool the Arctic surface by increasing planetary albedo but could also reduce tundra productivity. Here, we improve the data-constrained PInc-PanTher model of permafrost carbon storage by including estimates of plant productivity and rhizosphere priming on soil carbon. Six earth system models are used to drive the model, running G6solar (solar dimming) and G6sulfur (stratospheric sulfate aerosols) experiments, which reduce radiative forcing from SSP5-8.5 (no mitigation) to SSP2-4.5 (substantive mitigation) levels. By 2100, simulations indicate a loss of 9.2 ± 0.4 million km 2 (mean ± standard error) of permafrost area and 81 ± 8 Pg of soil carbon under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In comparison, under SSP2-4.5, G6solar, and G6sulfur, permafrost area loss would be mitigated by approximately 39 %, 37 %, and 34 % and soil carbon loss by 42 %, 54 %, and 47 %, respectively, relative to SSP5-8.5. Uncertainties in permafrost soil C loss estimates arise mainly from changes in vegetation productivity. Increased carbon flux from vegetation to soil raises soil C storage, while the priming effects of root exudates lowers it, with a net mitigating effect on soil C loss. Despite model differences, the protective effects of G6solar and G6sulfur on permafrost area and soil C storage are consistent and significant for all ESMs. G6 experiments mitigate ∼ <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M11" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn><mo>/</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">3</mn></mrow></math> <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="24cd820928a87a23fd3890478006b780"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="esd-14-39-2023-ie00001.svg" ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Liu, Aobo Moore, John C. Chen, Yating |
spellingShingle |
Liu, Aobo Moore, John C. Chen, Yating PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments |
author_facet |
Liu, Aobo Moore, John C. Chen, Yating |
author_sort |
Liu, Aobo |
title |
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments |
title_short |
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments |
title_full |
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments |
title_fullStr |
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments |
title_full_unstemmed |
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments |
title_sort |
pinc-panther estimates of arctic permafrost soil carbon under the geomip g6solar and g6sulfur experiments |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/39/2023/ |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra |
op_source |
eISSN: 2190-4987 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/esd-14-39-2023 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/39/2023/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
14 |
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1 |
container_start_page |
39 |
op_container_end_page |
53 |
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1766248028964913152 |