Modeling Climate Change Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Nemunas River Watershed and Curonian Lagoon Ecosystem
This study advances the understanding of climate projection variabilities in the Nemunas River, Curonian Lagoon, and southeastern Baltic Sea continuum by analyzing the output of a coupled ocean and drainage basin modeling system forced by a subset of climate models. A dataset from a downscaled high-...
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2024
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-890 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-890/ |
id |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:egusphere119011 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:egusphere119011 2024-10-13T14:06:28+00:00 Modeling Climate Change Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Nemunas River Watershed and Curonian Lagoon Ecosystem Čerkasova, Natalja Mėžinė, Jovita Idzelytė, Rasa Lesutienė, Jūratė Erturk, Ali Umgiesser, Georg 2024-09-12 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-890 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-890/ eng eng doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-890 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-890/ eISSN: Text 2024 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-890 2024-09-17T23:57:35Z This study advances the understanding of climate projection variabilities in the Nemunas River, Curonian Lagoon, and southeastern Baltic Sea continuum by analyzing the output of a coupled ocean and drainage basin modeling system forced by a subset of climate models. A dataset from a downscaled high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model driven by four different global climate models was bias-corrected and used to set up the hydrological (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and hydrodynamic (Shallow water HYdrodynamic Finite Element Model, SHYFEM) modeling system. This study investigates the variability and trends in environmental parameters such as water fluxes, timing, nutrient load, water temperature, ice cover, and saltwater intrusions under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The analysis highlights the differences among model results underscoring the inherent uncertainties in projecting climatic impacts, hence highlighting the necessity of using multi-model ensembles to improve the accuracy of climate change impact assessments. Modeling results were used to evaluate the possible environmental impact due to climate change through the analysis of the cold-water fish species reproduction season. We analyze the duration of cold periods ( <1.5 °C) as a thermal window for burbot ( Lota lota L.) spawning, calculated assuming different climate forcing scenarios and models. The analysis indicated coherent shrinking of the cold period and presence of changepoints during historical and different periods in the future; however, not all trends reach statistical significance, and due to high variability within the projections, they are less reliable. This means there is a considerable amount of uncertainty in these projections, highlighting the difficulty of making reliable climate change impact assessments. Text Burbot Lota lota lota Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
This study advances the understanding of climate projection variabilities in the Nemunas River, Curonian Lagoon, and southeastern Baltic Sea continuum by analyzing the output of a coupled ocean and drainage basin modeling system forced by a subset of climate models. A dataset from a downscaled high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model driven by four different global climate models was bias-corrected and used to set up the hydrological (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and hydrodynamic (Shallow water HYdrodynamic Finite Element Model, SHYFEM) modeling system. This study investigates the variability and trends in environmental parameters such as water fluxes, timing, nutrient load, water temperature, ice cover, and saltwater intrusions under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The analysis highlights the differences among model results underscoring the inherent uncertainties in projecting climatic impacts, hence highlighting the necessity of using multi-model ensembles to improve the accuracy of climate change impact assessments. Modeling results were used to evaluate the possible environmental impact due to climate change through the analysis of the cold-water fish species reproduction season. We analyze the duration of cold periods ( <1.5 °C) as a thermal window for burbot ( Lota lota L.) spawning, calculated assuming different climate forcing scenarios and models. The analysis indicated coherent shrinking of the cold period and presence of changepoints during historical and different periods in the future; however, not all trends reach statistical significance, and due to high variability within the projections, they are less reliable. This means there is a considerable amount of uncertainty in these projections, highlighting the difficulty of making reliable climate change impact assessments. |
format |
Text |
author |
Čerkasova, Natalja Mėžinė, Jovita Idzelytė, Rasa Lesutienė, Jūratė Erturk, Ali Umgiesser, Georg |
spellingShingle |
Čerkasova, Natalja Mėžinė, Jovita Idzelytė, Rasa Lesutienė, Jūratė Erturk, Ali Umgiesser, Georg Modeling Climate Change Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Nemunas River Watershed and Curonian Lagoon Ecosystem |
author_facet |
Čerkasova, Natalja Mėžinė, Jovita Idzelytė, Rasa Lesutienė, Jūratė Erturk, Ali Umgiesser, Georg |
author_sort |
Čerkasova, Natalja |
title |
Modeling Climate Change Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Nemunas River Watershed and Curonian Lagoon Ecosystem |
title_short |
Modeling Climate Change Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Nemunas River Watershed and Curonian Lagoon Ecosystem |
title_full |
Modeling Climate Change Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Nemunas River Watershed and Curonian Lagoon Ecosystem |
title_fullStr |
Modeling Climate Change Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Nemunas River Watershed and Curonian Lagoon Ecosystem |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling Climate Change Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Nemunas River Watershed and Curonian Lagoon Ecosystem |
title_sort |
modeling climate change uncertainty and its impact on the nemunas river watershed and curonian lagoon ecosystem |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-890 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-890/ |
genre |
Burbot Lota lota lota |
genre_facet |
Burbot Lota lota lota |
op_source |
eISSN: |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-890 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-890/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-890 |
_version_ |
1812812624302178304 |