Brief Communication: Antarctic sea ice loss brings observed trends into agreement with climate models
Most climate models do not reproduce the 1979–2014 increase in Antarctic sea ice cover. This was a contributing factor in successive Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports allocating low confidence to model projections of sea ice over the 21st century. We show that recent rapid dec...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:egusphere116402 2024-01-21T10:00:52+01:00 Brief Communication: Antarctic sea ice loss brings observed trends into agreement with climate models Holmes, Caroline R. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Holland, Paul R. Stroeve, Julienne Wilkinson, Jeremy 2023-12-18 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2881 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2881/ eng eng doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-2881 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2881/ eISSN: Text 2023 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2881 2023-12-25T17:24:16Z Most climate models do not reproduce the 1979–2014 increase in Antarctic sea ice cover. This was a contributing factor in successive Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports allocating low confidence to model projections of sea ice over the 21st century. We show that recent rapid declines bring observed sea ice area trends into line with the models. This implies that projections of substantial future Antarctic sea ice loss may be more reliable than previously thought, with substantial implications for the evolution of the Southern Hemisphere climate. Text Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Antarctic |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
description |
Most climate models do not reproduce the 1979–2014 increase in Antarctic sea ice cover. This was a contributing factor in successive Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports allocating low confidence to model projections of sea ice over the 21st century. We show that recent rapid declines bring observed sea ice area trends into line with the models. This implies that projections of substantial future Antarctic sea ice loss may be more reliable than previously thought, with substantial implications for the evolution of the Southern Hemisphere climate. |
format |
Text |
author |
Holmes, Caroline R. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Holland, Paul R. Stroeve, Julienne Wilkinson, Jeremy |
spellingShingle |
Holmes, Caroline R. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Holland, Paul R. Stroeve, Julienne Wilkinson, Jeremy Brief Communication: Antarctic sea ice loss brings observed trends into agreement with climate models |
author_facet |
Holmes, Caroline R. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Holland, Paul R. Stroeve, Julienne Wilkinson, Jeremy |
author_sort |
Holmes, Caroline R. |
title |
Brief Communication: Antarctic sea ice loss brings observed trends into agreement with climate models |
title_short |
Brief Communication: Antarctic sea ice loss brings observed trends into agreement with climate models |
title_full |
Brief Communication: Antarctic sea ice loss brings observed trends into agreement with climate models |
title_fullStr |
Brief Communication: Antarctic sea ice loss brings observed trends into agreement with climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Brief Communication: Antarctic sea ice loss brings observed trends into agreement with climate models |
title_sort |
brief communication: antarctic sea ice loss brings observed trends into agreement with climate models |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2881 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2881/ |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
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doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-2881 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2881/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2881 |
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1788703659611127808 |