Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming
Cold extremes have large impacts on human society. Understanding the physical processes dominating the changes in cold extremes is crucial for a reliable projection of future climate change. The observed cold extremes have decreased during the last several decades, and this trend will continue under...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:egusphere116199 2024-09-15T18:02:22+00:00 Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming Li, Donghuan Zhou, Tianjun Qi, Youcun Zou, Liwei Li, Chao Zhang, Wenxia Chen, Xiaolong 2024-06-27 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2806 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2806/ eng eng doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-2806 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2806/ eISSN: Text 2024 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2806 2024-08-28T05:24:15Z Cold extremes have large impacts on human society. Understanding the physical processes dominating the changes in cold extremes is crucial for a reliable projection of future climate change. The observed cold extremes have decreased during the last several decades, and this trend will continue under future global warming. Here, we quantitatively identify the contributions of dynamic (changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation) and thermodynamic (rising temperatures resulting from global warming) effects to East Asian cold extremes in the past several decades and in a future warm climate by using two sets of large-ensemble simulations of climate models. We show that the dynamic component accounts for over 80 % of the cold-month (coldest 5 % boreal winter months) surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly over the past 5 decades. However, in a future warm climate, the thermodynamic change is the main contributor to the decreases in the intensity and occurrence probability of East Asian cold extremes, while the dynamic change is also contributive. The intensity of East Asian cold extremes will decrease by around 5 °C at the end of the 21st century, in which the thermodynamic (dynamic) change contributes approximately 75 % (25 %). The present-day (1986–2005) East Asian cold extremes will almost never occur after around 2035, and this will happen 10 years later due solely to thermodynamic change. The upward trend of a positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern dominates the changes in the dynamic component. The finding provides a useful reference for policymakers in climate change adaptation activities. Text Climate change Global warming Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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English |
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Cold extremes have large impacts on human society. Understanding the physical processes dominating the changes in cold extremes is crucial for a reliable projection of future climate change. The observed cold extremes have decreased during the last several decades, and this trend will continue under future global warming. Here, we quantitatively identify the contributions of dynamic (changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation) and thermodynamic (rising temperatures resulting from global warming) effects to East Asian cold extremes in the past several decades and in a future warm climate by using two sets of large-ensemble simulations of climate models. We show that the dynamic component accounts for over 80 % of the cold-month (coldest 5 % boreal winter months) surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly over the past 5 decades. However, in a future warm climate, the thermodynamic change is the main contributor to the decreases in the intensity and occurrence probability of East Asian cold extremes, while the dynamic change is also contributive. The intensity of East Asian cold extremes will decrease by around 5 °C at the end of the 21st century, in which the thermodynamic (dynamic) change contributes approximately 75 % (25 %). The present-day (1986–2005) East Asian cold extremes will almost never occur after around 2035, and this will happen 10 years later due solely to thermodynamic change. The upward trend of a positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern dominates the changes in the dynamic component. The finding provides a useful reference for policymakers in climate change adaptation activities. |
format |
Text |
author |
Li, Donghuan Zhou, Tianjun Qi, Youcun Zou, Liwei Li, Chao Zhang, Wenxia Chen, Xiaolong |
spellingShingle |
Li, Donghuan Zhou, Tianjun Qi, Youcun Zou, Liwei Li, Chao Zhang, Wenxia Chen, Xiaolong Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming |
author_facet |
Li, Donghuan Zhou, Tianjun Qi, Youcun Zou, Liwei Li, Chao Zhang, Wenxia Chen, Xiaolong |
author_sort |
Li, Donghuan |
title |
Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming |
title_short |
Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming |
title_full |
Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming |
title_fullStr |
Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming |
title_sort |
future reduction of cold extremes over east asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2806 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2806/ |
genre |
Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Climate change Global warming |
op_source |
eISSN: |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-2806 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2806/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2806 |
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1810439818588454912 |