Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift
Most climatic and glaciological processes exhibit internal variability, which is omitted from many ice sheet model simulations. Prior studies have found that climatic variability can change ice sheet sensitivity to the long-term mean and trend in climate forcing. In this study, we use an ensemble of...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:egusphere115729 2024-06-23T07:53:22+00:00 Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift Robel, Alexander Verjans, Vincent Ambelorun, Aminat 2024-05-31 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2546 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2546/ eng eng doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-2546 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2546/ eISSN: Text 2024 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2546 2024-06-13T01:23:50Z Most climatic and glaciological processes exhibit internal variability, which is omitted from many ice sheet model simulations. Prior studies have found that climatic variability can change ice sheet sensitivity to the long-term mean and trend in climate forcing. In this study, we use an ensemble of simulations with a stochastic large-scale ice sheet model to demonstrate that variability in frontal ablation of marine-terminating glaciers changes the mean state of the Greenland Ice Sheet through noise-induced drift. Conversely, stochastic variability in surface mass balance does not appear to cause noise-induced drift in these ensembles. We describe three potential causes for noise-induced drift identified in prior statistical physics literature: noise-induced bifurcations, multiplicative noise, and nonlinearities in noisy processes. Idealized simulations and Reynolds decomposition theory show that for marine ice sheets in particular, noise-induced bifurcations and nonlinearities in variable ice sheet processes are likely the cause of the noise-induced drift. We argue that the omnipresence of variability in climate and ice sheet systems means that the state of real-world ice sheets includes this tendency to drift. Thus, the lack of representation of such noise-induced drift in spin-up and transient ice sheet simulations is a potentially ubiquitous source of bias in ice sheet models. Text Greenland Ice Sheet Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Greenland |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
description |
Most climatic and glaciological processes exhibit internal variability, which is omitted from many ice sheet model simulations. Prior studies have found that climatic variability can change ice sheet sensitivity to the long-term mean and trend in climate forcing. In this study, we use an ensemble of simulations with a stochastic large-scale ice sheet model to demonstrate that variability in frontal ablation of marine-terminating glaciers changes the mean state of the Greenland Ice Sheet through noise-induced drift. Conversely, stochastic variability in surface mass balance does not appear to cause noise-induced drift in these ensembles. We describe three potential causes for noise-induced drift identified in prior statistical physics literature: noise-induced bifurcations, multiplicative noise, and nonlinearities in noisy processes. Idealized simulations and Reynolds decomposition theory show that for marine ice sheets in particular, noise-induced bifurcations and nonlinearities in variable ice sheet processes are likely the cause of the noise-induced drift. We argue that the omnipresence of variability in climate and ice sheet systems means that the state of real-world ice sheets includes this tendency to drift. Thus, the lack of representation of such noise-induced drift in spin-up and transient ice sheet simulations is a potentially ubiquitous source of bias in ice sheet models. |
format |
Text |
author |
Robel, Alexander Verjans, Vincent Ambelorun, Aminat |
spellingShingle |
Robel, Alexander Verjans, Vincent Ambelorun, Aminat Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift |
author_facet |
Robel, Alexander Verjans, Vincent Ambelorun, Aminat |
author_sort |
Robel, Alexander |
title |
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift |
title_short |
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift |
title_full |
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift |
title_fullStr |
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift |
title_full_unstemmed |
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift |
title_sort |
biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2546 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2546/ |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
eISSN: |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-2546 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2546/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2546 |
_version_ |
1802644969865871360 |