A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): The meltwater paradox reigns supreme
The last deglaciation ( ∼20 –11 ka BP) is a period of a major, long-term climate transition from a glacial to interglacial state that features multiple centennial- to decadal-scale abrupt climate variations whose root cause is still not fully understood. To better understand this time period, the Pa...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:egusphere113809 2024-06-23T07:53:50+00:00 A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): The meltwater paradox reigns supreme Snoll, Brooke Ivanovic, Ruza Gregoire, Lauren Sherriff-Tadano, Sam Menviel, Laurie Obase, Takashi Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Bouttes, Nathaelle He, Chengfei He, Feng Kapsch, Marie Mikolajewicz, Uwe Muglia, Juan Valdes, Paul 2024-04-05 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1802 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1802/ eng eng doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-1802 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1802/ eISSN: Text 2024 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1802 2024-06-13T01:23:50Z The last deglaciation ( ∼20 –11 ka BP) is a period of a major, long-term climate transition from a glacial to interglacial state that features multiple centennial- to decadal-scale abrupt climate variations whose root cause is still not fully understood. To better understand this time period, the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) has provided a framework for an internationally coordinated endeavour in simulating the last deglaciation whilst encompassing a broad range of models. Here, we present a multi-model intercomparison of 17 transient simulations of the early part of the last deglaciation ( ∼20 –15 ka BP) from nine different climate models spanning a range of model complexities and uncertain boundary conditions and forcings. The numerous simulations available provide the opportunity to better understand the chain of events and mechanisms of climate changes between 20 and 15 ka BP and our collective ability to simulate them. We conclude that the amount of freshwater forcing and whether it follows the ice sheet reconstruction or induces an inferred Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) history, heavily impacts the deglacial climate evolution for each simulation rather than differences in the model physics. The course of the deglaciation is consistent between simulations except when the freshwater forcing is above 0.1 Sv – at least 70 % of the simulations agree that there is warming by 15 ka BP in most places excluding the location of meltwater input. For simulations with freshwater forcings that exceed 0.1 Sv from 18 ka BP, warming is delayed in the North Atlantic and surface air temperature correlations with AMOC strength are much higher. However, we find that the state of the AMOC coming out of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) also plays a key role in the AMOC sensitivity to model forcings. In addition, we show that the response of each model to the chosen meltwater scenario depends largely on the sensitivity of the model to the freshwater forcing and other aspects of the ... Text Ice Sheet North Atlantic Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Endeavour ENVELOPE(162.000,162.000,-76.550,-76.550) |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
The last deglaciation ( ∼20 –11 ka BP) is a period of a major, long-term climate transition from a glacial to interglacial state that features multiple centennial- to decadal-scale abrupt climate variations whose root cause is still not fully understood. To better understand this time period, the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) has provided a framework for an internationally coordinated endeavour in simulating the last deglaciation whilst encompassing a broad range of models. Here, we present a multi-model intercomparison of 17 transient simulations of the early part of the last deglaciation ( ∼20 –15 ka BP) from nine different climate models spanning a range of model complexities and uncertain boundary conditions and forcings. The numerous simulations available provide the opportunity to better understand the chain of events and mechanisms of climate changes between 20 and 15 ka BP and our collective ability to simulate them. We conclude that the amount of freshwater forcing and whether it follows the ice sheet reconstruction or induces an inferred Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) history, heavily impacts the deglacial climate evolution for each simulation rather than differences in the model physics. The course of the deglaciation is consistent between simulations except when the freshwater forcing is above 0.1 Sv – at least 70 % of the simulations agree that there is warming by 15 ka BP in most places excluding the location of meltwater input. For simulations with freshwater forcings that exceed 0.1 Sv from 18 ka BP, warming is delayed in the North Atlantic and surface air temperature correlations with AMOC strength are much higher. However, we find that the state of the AMOC coming out of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) also plays a key role in the AMOC sensitivity to model forcings. In addition, we show that the response of each model to the chosen meltwater scenario depends largely on the sensitivity of the model to the freshwater forcing and other aspects of the ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Snoll, Brooke Ivanovic, Ruza Gregoire, Lauren Sherriff-Tadano, Sam Menviel, Laurie Obase, Takashi Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Bouttes, Nathaelle He, Chengfei He, Feng Kapsch, Marie Mikolajewicz, Uwe Muglia, Juan Valdes, Paul |
spellingShingle |
Snoll, Brooke Ivanovic, Ruza Gregoire, Lauren Sherriff-Tadano, Sam Menviel, Laurie Obase, Takashi Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Bouttes, Nathaelle He, Chengfei He, Feng Kapsch, Marie Mikolajewicz, Uwe Muglia, Juan Valdes, Paul A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): The meltwater paradox reigns supreme |
author_facet |
Snoll, Brooke Ivanovic, Ruza Gregoire, Lauren Sherriff-Tadano, Sam Menviel, Laurie Obase, Takashi Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Bouttes, Nathaelle He, Chengfei He, Feng Kapsch, Marie Mikolajewicz, Uwe Muglia, Juan Valdes, Paul |
author_sort |
Snoll, Brooke |
title |
A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): The meltwater paradox reigns supreme |
title_short |
A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): The meltwater paradox reigns supreme |
title_full |
A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): The meltwater paradox reigns supreme |
title_fullStr |
A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): The meltwater paradox reigns supreme |
title_full_unstemmed |
A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): The meltwater paradox reigns supreme |
title_sort |
multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (pmip4 ldv1): the meltwater paradox reigns supreme |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1802 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1802/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(162.000,162.000,-76.550,-76.550) |
geographic |
Endeavour |
geographic_facet |
Endeavour |
genre |
Ice Sheet North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet North Atlantic |
op_source |
eISSN: |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-1802 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1802/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1802 |
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1802645685898575872 |