The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales
In recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has undergone changes associated with enhanced poleward inflow of Atlantic and Pacific waters and increased heat flux exchange with the atmosphere in seasonally ice-free regions. The associated changes in upper-ocean heat content can alter the exchange of energy a...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:egusphere112815 2024-06-23T07:49:24+00:00 The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales Bianco, Elena Iovino, Doroteaciro Masina, Simona Materia, Stefano Ruggieri, Paolo 2024-05-13 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1406 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1406/ eng eng doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-1406 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1406/ eISSN: Text 2024 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1406 2024-06-13T01:23:50Z In recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has undergone changes associated with enhanced poleward inflow of Atlantic and Pacific waters and increased heat flux exchange with the atmosphere in seasonally ice-free regions. The associated changes in upper-ocean heat content can alter the exchange of energy at the ocean–ice interface. Yet, the role of ocean heat content in modulating Arctic sea ice variability at sub-seasonal timescales is still poorly documented. We analyze ocean heat transports and surface heat fluxes between 1980–2021 using two eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses, C-GLORSv5 and ORAS5, to assess the surface energy budget of the Arctic Ocean and its regional seas. We then assess the role of upper-ocean heat content, computed in the surface mixed layer ( Q ml ) and in the 0–300 m layer ( Q 300 ), as a sub-seasonal precursor of sea ice variability by means of lag correlations. Our results reveal that in the Pacific Arctic regions, sea ice variability in autumn is linked with Q ml anomalies leading by 1 to 3 months, and this relationship has strengthened in the Laptev and East Siberian seas during 2001–2021 relative to 1980–2000, primarily due to reduced surface heat loss since the mid-2000s. Q 300 anomalies act as a precursor for wintertime sea ice variability in the Barents and Kara seas, with considerable strengthening and expansion of this link from 1980–2000 and 2001–2021 in both reanalyses. Our results highlight the role played by upper-ocean heat content in modulating the interannual variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales. Heat stored in the ocean has important implications for the predictability of sea ice, calling for improvements in forecast initialization and a focus upon regional predictions in the Arctic region. Text Arctic Arctic Ocean laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic Arctic Ocean Pacific |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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English |
description |
In recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has undergone changes associated with enhanced poleward inflow of Atlantic and Pacific waters and increased heat flux exchange with the atmosphere in seasonally ice-free regions. The associated changes in upper-ocean heat content can alter the exchange of energy at the ocean–ice interface. Yet, the role of ocean heat content in modulating Arctic sea ice variability at sub-seasonal timescales is still poorly documented. We analyze ocean heat transports and surface heat fluxes between 1980–2021 using two eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses, C-GLORSv5 and ORAS5, to assess the surface energy budget of the Arctic Ocean and its regional seas. We then assess the role of upper-ocean heat content, computed in the surface mixed layer ( Q ml ) and in the 0–300 m layer ( Q 300 ), as a sub-seasonal precursor of sea ice variability by means of lag correlations. Our results reveal that in the Pacific Arctic regions, sea ice variability in autumn is linked with Q ml anomalies leading by 1 to 3 months, and this relationship has strengthened in the Laptev and East Siberian seas during 2001–2021 relative to 1980–2000, primarily due to reduced surface heat loss since the mid-2000s. Q 300 anomalies act as a precursor for wintertime sea ice variability in the Barents and Kara seas, with considerable strengthening and expansion of this link from 1980–2000 and 2001–2021 in both reanalyses. Our results highlight the role played by upper-ocean heat content in modulating the interannual variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales. Heat stored in the ocean has important implications for the predictability of sea ice, calling for improvements in forecast initialization and a focus upon regional predictions in the Arctic region. |
format |
Text |
author |
Bianco, Elena Iovino, Doroteaciro Masina, Simona Materia, Stefano Ruggieri, Paolo |
spellingShingle |
Bianco, Elena Iovino, Doroteaciro Masina, Simona Materia, Stefano Ruggieri, Paolo The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales |
author_facet |
Bianco, Elena Iovino, Doroteaciro Masina, Simona Materia, Stefano Ruggieri, Paolo |
author_sort |
Bianco, Elena |
title |
The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales |
title_short |
The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales |
title_full |
The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales |
title_fullStr |
The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales |
title_full_unstemmed |
The role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales |
title_sort |
role of upper ocean heat content in the regional variability of arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal time scales |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1406 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1406/ |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
eISSN: |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-1406 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1406/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1406 |
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1802639796603977728 |