The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0-rc: A platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change
Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quan...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-14 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-14/ |
id |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:egusphere108768 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:egusphere108768 2024-01-21T10:00:37+01:00 The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0-rc: A platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change Kopp, Robert E. Garner, Gregory G. Hermans, Tim H. J. Jha, Shantenu Kumar, Praveen Slangen, Aimée B. A. Turilli, Matteo Edwards, Tamsin L. Gregory, Jonathan M. Koubbe, George Levermann, Anders Merzky, Andre Nowicki, Sophie Palmer, Matthew D. Smith, Chris 2023-12-21 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-14 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-14/ eng eng doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-14 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-14/ eISSN: Text 2023 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-14 2023-12-25T17:24:18Z Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quantifiable dimension of uncertainty; comparison of alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication of structural uncertainty. Here we describe the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform for characterizing different probability distributions for the drivers of sea-level change and their consequences for global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level change. We demonstrate its application by generating seven alternative probability distributions under multiple emissions scenarios for both future global mean sea-level change and future relative and extreme sea-level change at New York City. These distributions, closely aligned with those presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, emphasize the role of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets as drivers of structural uncertainty in sea-level change projections. Text Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quantifiable dimension of uncertainty; comparison of alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication of structural uncertainty. Here we describe the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform for characterizing different probability distributions for the drivers of sea-level change and their consequences for global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level change. We demonstrate its application by generating seven alternative probability distributions under multiple emissions scenarios for both future global mean sea-level change and future relative and extreme sea-level change at New York City. These distributions, closely aligned with those presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, emphasize the role of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets as drivers of structural uncertainty in sea-level change projections. |
format |
Text |
author |
Kopp, Robert E. Garner, Gregory G. Hermans, Tim H. J. Jha, Shantenu Kumar, Praveen Slangen, Aimée B. A. Turilli, Matteo Edwards, Tamsin L. Gregory, Jonathan M. Koubbe, George Levermann, Anders Merzky, Andre Nowicki, Sophie Palmer, Matthew D. Smith, Chris |
spellingShingle |
Kopp, Robert E. Garner, Gregory G. Hermans, Tim H. J. Jha, Shantenu Kumar, Praveen Slangen, Aimée B. A. Turilli, Matteo Edwards, Tamsin L. Gregory, Jonathan M. Koubbe, George Levermann, Anders Merzky, Andre Nowicki, Sophie Palmer, Matthew D. Smith, Chris The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0-rc: A platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
author_facet |
Kopp, Robert E. Garner, Gregory G. Hermans, Tim H. J. Jha, Shantenu Kumar, Praveen Slangen, Aimée B. A. Turilli, Matteo Edwards, Tamsin L. Gregory, Jonathan M. Koubbe, George Levermann, Anders Merzky, Andre Nowicki, Sophie Palmer, Matthew D. Smith, Chris |
author_sort |
Kopp, Robert E. |
title |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0-rc: A platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_short |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0-rc: A platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_full |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0-rc: A platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_fullStr |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0-rc: A platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0-rc: A platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_sort |
framework for assessing changes to sea-level (facts) v1.0-rc: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-14 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-14/ |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
op_source |
eISSN: |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-14 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-14/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-14 |
_version_ |
1788703368306229248 |