On the drivers of regime shifts in the Antarctic marginal seas
Recent studies have found evidence for a potential future tipping point, when the density of Antarctic continental shelf waters, specifically in the southern Weddell Sea, will allow for the onshore flow of warm waters of open ocean origin. A cold-to-warm regime shift in the adjacent ice shelf caviti...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:egusphere106907 2023-12-10T09:40:21+01:00 On the drivers of regime shifts in the Antarctic marginal seas Haid, Verena Timmermann, Ralph Gürses, Özgür Hellmer, Hartmut H. 2023-11-07 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1044 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-1044/ eng eng doi:10.5194/egusphere-2022-1044 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-1044/ eISSN: Text 2023 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1044 2023-11-13T17:24:19Z Recent studies have found evidence for a potential future tipping point, when the density of Antarctic continental shelf waters, specifically in the southern Weddell Sea, will allow for the onshore flow of warm waters of open ocean origin. A cold-to-warm regime shift in the adjacent ice shelf cavities entails a strong enhancement of ice shelf basal melt rates and could trigger instabilities in the ice sheet. From a suite of numerical experiments, aimed to force such a regime shift on the continental shelf, we identified the density balance between the shelf waters formed by sea ice production and the warmer water at the shelf break as the defining element of a tipping into a warm state. In our experiments, this process is reversible but there is evidence for hysteresis behaviour. Using HadCM3 20th-century output as atmospheric forcing, the resulting state of the Filchner–Ronne cavity depends on the initial state. In contrast, ERA Interim forcing pushes even a warm-initialized cavity into a cold state, i.e. it pushes the system back across the reversal threshold to the cold side. However, it turns out that for forcing data perturbations of a realistic magnitude, a unique and universal recipe for triggering a regime shift in Antarctic marginal seas was not found; instead, various ocean states can lead to an intrusion of off-shelf waters onto the continental shelf and into the cavities. Whether or not any given forcing or perturbation yields a density imbalance and thus allows for the inflow of warm water depends on the complex interplay between bottom topography, mean ocean state, sea ice processes, and atmospheric conditions. Text Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Sea ice Weddell Sea Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Antarctic The Antarctic Weddell Weddell Sea |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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English |
description |
Recent studies have found evidence for a potential future tipping point, when the density of Antarctic continental shelf waters, specifically in the southern Weddell Sea, will allow for the onshore flow of warm waters of open ocean origin. A cold-to-warm regime shift in the adjacent ice shelf cavities entails a strong enhancement of ice shelf basal melt rates and could trigger instabilities in the ice sheet. From a suite of numerical experiments, aimed to force such a regime shift on the continental shelf, we identified the density balance between the shelf waters formed by sea ice production and the warmer water at the shelf break as the defining element of a tipping into a warm state. In our experiments, this process is reversible but there is evidence for hysteresis behaviour. Using HadCM3 20th-century output as atmospheric forcing, the resulting state of the Filchner–Ronne cavity depends on the initial state. In contrast, ERA Interim forcing pushes even a warm-initialized cavity into a cold state, i.e. it pushes the system back across the reversal threshold to the cold side. However, it turns out that for forcing data perturbations of a realistic magnitude, a unique and universal recipe for triggering a regime shift in Antarctic marginal seas was not found; instead, various ocean states can lead to an intrusion of off-shelf waters onto the continental shelf and into the cavities. Whether or not any given forcing or perturbation yields a density imbalance and thus allows for the inflow of warm water depends on the complex interplay between bottom topography, mean ocean state, sea ice processes, and atmospheric conditions. |
format |
Text |
author |
Haid, Verena Timmermann, Ralph Gürses, Özgür Hellmer, Hartmut H. |
spellingShingle |
Haid, Verena Timmermann, Ralph Gürses, Özgür Hellmer, Hartmut H. On the drivers of regime shifts in the Antarctic marginal seas |
author_facet |
Haid, Verena Timmermann, Ralph Gürses, Özgür Hellmer, Hartmut H. |
author_sort |
Haid, Verena |
title |
On the drivers of regime shifts in the Antarctic marginal seas |
title_short |
On the drivers of regime shifts in the Antarctic marginal seas |
title_full |
On the drivers of regime shifts in the Antarctic marginal seas |
title_fullStr |
On the drivers of regime shifts in the Antarctic marginal seas |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the drivers of regime shifts in the Antarctic marginal seas |
title_sort |
on the drivers of regime shifts in the antarctic marginal seas |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1044 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-1044/ |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Weddell Weddell Sea |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Weddell Weddell Sea |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Sea ice Weddell Sea |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Sea ice Weddell Sea |
op_source |
eISSN: |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/egusphere-2022-1044 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-1044/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1044 |
_version_ |
1784892962965028864 |