The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s
The global acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) during the 20th century is now established. On the local scale, this is harder to establish as several drivers of SLR play a role, which can mask the acceleration. Here, we study the rate of SLR along the coast of the Netherlands from the average of si...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:egusphere106516 2023-07-30T04:05:40+02:00 The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s Keizer, Iris Bars, Dewi Valk, Cees Jüling, André Wal, Roderik Drijfhout, Sybren 2023-07-06 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-935 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-935/ eng eng doi:10.5194/egusphere-2022-935 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-935/ eISSN: Text 2023 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-935 2023-07-10T16:24:18Z The global acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) during the 20th century is now established. On the local scale, this is harder to establish as several drivers of SLR play a role, which can mask the acceleration. Here, we study the rate of SLR along the coast of the Netherlands from the average of six tide gauge records covering the period 1890–2021. To isolate the effects of the wind field variations and the nodal tide from the local sea-level trend, we use four generalised additive models (GAMs) which include different predictive variables. From the sea-level trend estimates, we obtain the continuous evolution of the rate of SLR and its uncertainty over the observational period. The standard error in the estimation of the rate of SLR is reduced when we account for nodal-tide effects and is reduced further when we also account for the wind effects, meaning these provide better estimates of the rate of SLR. A part of the long-term SLR is due to wind forcing related to a strengthening and northward shift of the jet stream, but this SLR contribution decelerated over the observational period. Additionally, we detect wind-forced sea-level variability on multidecadal timescales with an amplitude of around 1 cm. Using a coherence analysis, we identify both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability as its drivers. Crucially, accounting for the nodal-tide and wind effects changes the estimated rate of SLR, unmasking an SLR acceleration that started in the 1960s. Our best-fitting GAM, which accounts for nodal and wind effects, yields a rate of SLR of about 1.7 2.2 1.3 <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="28pt" height="15pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="9ff72ed2c15a494a31dfe47cfd759cf9"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="os-19-991-2023-ie00001.svg" width="28pt" height="15pt" src="os-19-991-2023-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> mm yr −1 in 1900–1919 and 1.5 1.9 1.2 <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" ... Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Gam ENVELOPE(-57.955,-57.955,-61.923,-61.923) |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
description |
The global acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) during the 20th century is now established. On the local scale, this is harder to establish as several drivers of SLR play a role, which can mask the acceleration. Here, we study the rate of SLR along the coast of the Netherlands from the average of six tide gauge records covering the period 1890–2021. To isolate the effects of the wind field variations and the nodal tide from the local sea-level trend, we use four generalised additive models (GAMs) which include different predictive variables. From the sea-level trend estimates, we obtain the continuous evolution of the rate of SLR and its uncertainty over the observational period. The standard error in the estimation of the rate of SLR is reduced when we account for nodal-tide effects and is reduced further when we also account for the wind effects, meaning these provide better estimates of the rate of SLR. A part of the long-term SLR is due to wind forcing related to a strengthening and northward shift of the jet stream, but this SLR contribution decelerated over the observational period. Additionally, we detect wind-forced sea-level variability on multidecadal timescales with an amplitude of around 1 cm. Using a coherence analysis, we identify both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability as its drivers. Crucially, accounting for the nodal-tide and wind effects changes the estimated rate of SLR, unmasking an SLR acceleration that started in the 1960s. Our best-fitting GAM, which accounts for nodal and wind effects, yields a rate of SLR of about 1.7 2.2 1.3 <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="28pt" height="15pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="9ff72ed2c15a494a31dfe47cfd759cf9"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="os-19-991-2023-ie00001.svg" width="28pt" height="15pt" src="os-19-991-2023-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> mm yr −1 in 1900–1919 and 1.5 1.9 1.2 <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Keizer, Iris Bars, Dewi Valk, Cees Jüling, André Wal, Roderik Drijfhout, Sybren |
spellingShingle |
Keizer, Iris Bars, Dewi Valk, Cees Jüling, André Wal, Roderik Drijfhout, Sybren The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
author_facet |
Keizer, Iris Bars, Dewi Valk, Cees Jüling, André Wal, Roderik Drijfhout, Sybren |
author_sort |
Keizer, Iris |
title |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_short |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_full |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_fullStr |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_full_unstemmed |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_sort |
acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the netherlands started in the 1960s |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-935 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-935/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-57.955,-57.955,-61.923,-61.923) |
geographic |
Gam |
geographic_facet |
Gam |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
eISSN: |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/egusphere-2022-935 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-935/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-935 |
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1772817745932451840 |