Rapid Sea Ice Changes in the Future Barents Sea
Winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. The anthropogenic ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. A notable manifestation of internal variability are periods of rapid ice loss or g...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:egusphere103092 2023-05-15T15:05:42+02:00 Rapid Sea Ice Changes in the Future Barents Sea Rieke, Ole Årthun, Marius Dörr, Jakob Simon 2022-05-30 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-324 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-324/ eng eng doi:10.5194/egusphere-2022-324 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-324/ eISSN: Text 2022 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-324 2022-06-06T16:22:44Z Winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. The anthropogenic ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. A notable manifestation of internal variability are periods of rapid ice loss or growth that greatly exceed the anthropogenic trend. These rapid ice change events are associated with large displacements of the sea ice edge which could potentially have both local and remote impacts on the climate system. In this study we accordingly present the first investigation of the frequency and drivers of these rapid ice change events in the future Barents Sea, using multi-member ensemble simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6. A majority of rapid sea ice changes are triggered by trends in ocean heat transport or surface heat fluxes. Rapid ice change events are a common feature of the future Barents Sea until the region becomes close to ice free. As their evolution over time is closely tied to the average sea ice conditions, rapid ice changes in the Barents Sea serve as a precursor for future changes in adjacent seas. Text Arctic Barents Sea Sea ice Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic Barents Sea |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. The anthropogenic ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. A notable manifestation of internal variability are periods of rapid ice loss or growth that greatly exceed the anthropogenic trend. These rapid ice change events are associated with large displacements of the sea ice edge which could potentially have both local and remote impacts on the climate system. In this study we accordingly present the first investigation of the frequency and drivers of these rapid ice change events in the future Barents Sea, using multi-member ensemble simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6. A majority of rapid sea ice changes are triggered by trends in ocean heat transport or surface heat fluxes. Rapid ice change events are a common feature of the future Barents Sea until the region becomes close to ice free. As their evolution over time is closely tied to the average sea ice conditions, rapid ice changes in the Barents Sea serve as a precursor for future changes in adjacent seas. |
format |
Text |
author |
Rieke, Ole Årthun, Marius Dörr, Jakob Simon |
spellingShingle |
Rieke, Ole Årthun, Marius Dörr, Jakob Simon Rapid Sea Ice Changes in the Future Barents Sea |
author_facet |
Rieke, Ole Årthun, Marius Dörr, Jakob Simon |
author_sort |
Rieke, Ole |
title |
Rapid Sea Ice Changes in the Future Barents Sea |
title_short |
Rapid Sea Ice Changes in the Future Barents Sea |
title_full |
Rapid Sea Ice Changes in the Future Barents Sea |
title_fullStr |
Rapid Sea Ice Changes in the Future Barents Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rapid Sea Ice Changes in the Future Barents Sea |
title_sort |
rapid sea ice changes in the future barents sea |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-324 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-324/ |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Barents Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
eISSN: |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/egusphere-2022-324 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-324/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-324 |
_version_ |
1766337336691392512 |