The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation
An ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium conducted with a three-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity are constrained to follow temperature histories obtained from a recent compilation of well-calibrated surface temperature proxies using a simple data assimilat...
Published in: | Climate of the Past |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-389-2009 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/5/389/2009/ |
id |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:cp6339 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:cp6339 2023-05-15T14:41:56+02:00 The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation Crespin, E. Goosse, H. Fichefet, T. Mann, M. E. 2018-09-27 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-389-2009 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/5/389/2009/ eng eng doi:10.5194/cp-5-389-2009 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/5/389/2009/ eISSN: 1814-9332 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-389-2009 2020-07-20T16:26:38Z An ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium conducted with a three-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity are constrained to follow temperature histories obtained from a recent compilation of well-calibrated surface temperature proxies using a simple data assimilation technique. Those simulations provide a reconstruction of the climate of the Arctic that is compatible with the model physics, the forcing applied and the proxy records. Available observational data, proxy-based reconstructions and our model results suggest that the Arctic climate is characterized by substantial variations in surface temperature over the past millennium. Though the most recent decades are likely to be the warmest of the past millennium, we find evidence for substantial past warming episodes in the Arctic. In particular, our model reconstructions show a prominent warm event during the period 1470–1520. This warm period is likely related to the internal variability of the climate system, that is the variability present in the absence of any change in external forcing. We examine the roles of competing mechanisms that could potentially produce this anomaly. This study leads us to conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation, through enhanced southwesterly winds towards northern Europe, Siberia and Canada, are likely the main cause of the late 15th/early 16th century Arctic warming. Text Arctic Siberia Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic Canada Climate of the Past 5 3 389 401 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
An ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium conducted with a three-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity are constrained to follow temperature histories obtained from a recent compilation of well-calibrated surface temperature proxies using a simple data assimilation technique. Those simulations provide a reconstruction of the climate of the Arctic that is compatible with the model physics, the forcing applied and the proxy records. Available observational data, proxy-based reconstructions and our model results suggest that the Arctic climate is characterized by substantial variations in surface temperature over the past millennium. Though the most recent decades are likely to be the warmest of the past millennium, we find evidence for substantial past warming episodes in the Arctic. In particular, our model reconstructions show a prominent warm event during the period 1470–1520. This warm period is likely related to the internal variability of the climate system, that is the variability present in the absence of any change in external forcing. We examine the roles of competing mechanisms that could potentially produce this anomaly. This study leads us to conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation, through enhanced southwesterly winds towards northern Europe, Siberia and Canada, are likely the main cause of the late 15th/early 16th century Arctic warming. |
format |
Text |
author |
Crespin, E. Goosse, H. Fichefet, T. Mann, M. E. |
spellingShingle |
Crespin, E. Goosse, H. Fichefet, T. Mann, M. E. The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
author_facet |
Crespin, E. Goosse, H. Fichefet, T. Mann, M. E. |
author_sort |
Crespin, E. |
title |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_short |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_full |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_fullStr |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_full_unstemmed |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_sort |
15th century arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-389-2009 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/5/389/2009/ |
geographic |
Arctic Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada |
genre |
Arctic Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Siberia |
op_source |
eISSN: 1814-9332 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/cp-5-389-2009 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/5/389/2009/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-389-2009 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
389 |
op_container_end_page |
401 |
_version_ |
1766313635464871936 |