Teleconnections and Extreme Ocean States in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean
The Northeast Atlantic possesses an energetic and variable wind and wave climate which has a large potential for renewable energy extraction; for example along the western seaboards off Ireland. The role of surface winds in the generation of ocean waves means that global atmospheric circulation patt...
Published in: | Advances in Science and Research |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-11-2019 https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/16/11/2019/ |
id |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:asr73403 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:asr73403 2023-05-15T17:30:10+02:00 Teleconnections and Extreme Ocean States in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean Gleeson, Emily Clancy, Colm Zubiate, Laura Janjić, Jelena Gallagher, Sarah Dias, Frédéric 2019-03-22 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-11-2019 https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/16/11/2019/ eng eng doi:10.5194/asr-16-11-2019 https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/16/11/2019/ eISSN: 1992-0636 Text 2019 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-11-2019 2020-07-20T16:22:54Z The Northeast Atlantic possesses an energetic and variable wind and wave climate which has a large potential for renewable energy extraction; for example along the western seaboards off Ireland. The role of surface winds in the generation of ocean waves means that global atmospheric circulation patterns and wave climate characteristics are inherently connected. In quantifying how the wave and wind climate of this region may change towards the end of the century due to climate change, it is useful to investigate the influence of large scale atmospheric oscillations using indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic pattern (EA) and the Scandinavian pattern (SCAND). In this study a statistical analysis of these teleconnections was carried out using an ensemble of EC-Earth global climate simulations run under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios, where EC-Earth is a European-developed atmosphere ocean sea-ice coupled climate model. In addition, EC-Earth model fields were used to drive the WAVEWATCH III wave model over the North Atlantic basin to create the highest resolution wave projection dataset currently available for Ireland. Using this dataset we analysed the correlations between teleconnections and significant wave heights ( H s ) with a particular focus on extreme ocean states using a range of statistical methods. The strongest, statistically significant correlations exist between the 95th percentile of significant wave height and the NAO. Correlations between extreme H s and the EA and SCAND are weaker and not statistically significant over parts of the North Atlantic. When the NAO is in its positive phase (NAO + ) and the EA and SCAND are in a negative phase (EA − , SCAND − ) the strongest effects are seen on 20-year return levels of extreme ocean waves. Under RCP8.5 there are large areas around Ireland where the 20-year return level of H s increases by the end of the century, despite an overall decreasing trend in mean wind speeds and hence mean H s . Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northeast Atlantic Sea ice Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Advances in Science and Research 16 11 29 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
op_collection_id |
ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
The Northeast Atlantic possesses an energetic and variable wind and wave climate which has a large potential for renewable energy extraction; for example along the western seaboards off Ireland. The role of surface winds in the generation of ocean waves means that global atmospheric circulation patterns and wave climate characteristics are inherently connected. In quantifying how the wave and wind climate of this region may change towards the end of the century due to climate change, it is useful to investigate the influence of large scale atmospheric oscillations using indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic pattern (EA) and the Scandinavian pattern (SCAND). In this study a statistical analysis of these teleconnections was carried out using an ensemble of EC-Earth global climate simulations run under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios, where EC-Earth is a European-developed atmosphere ocean sea-ice coupled climate model. In addition, EC-Earth model fields were used to drive the WAVEWATCH III wave model over the North Atlantic basin to create the highest resolution wave projection dataset currently available for Ireland. Using this dataset we analysed the correlations between teleconnections and significant wave heights ( H s ) with a particular focus on extreme ocean states using a range of statistical methods. The strongest, statistically significant correlations exist between the 95th percentile of significant wave height and the NAO. Correlations between extreme H s and the EA and SCAND are weaker and not statistically significant over parts of the North Atlantic. When the NAO is in its positive phase (NAO + ) and the EA and SCAND are in a negative phase (EA − , SCAND − ) the strongest effects are seen on 20-year return levels of extreme ocean waves. Under RCP8.5 there are large areas around Ireland where the 20-year return level of H s increases by the end of the century, despite an overall decreasing trend in mean wind speeds and hence mean H s . |
format |
Text |
author |
Gleeson, Emily Clancy, Colm Zubiate, Laura Janjić, Jelena Gallagher, Sarah Dias, Frédéric |
spellingShingle |
Gleeson, Emily Clancy, Colm Zubiate, Laura Janjić, Jelena Gallagher, Sarah Dias, Frédéric Teleconnections and Extreme Ocean States in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean |
author_facet |
Gleeson, Emily Clancy, Colm Zubiate, Laura Janjić, Jelena Gallagher, Sarah Dias, Frédéric |
author_sort |
Gleeson, Emily |
title |
Teleconnections and Extreme Ocean States in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean |
title_short |
Teleconnections and Extreme Ocean States in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean |
title_full |
Teleconnections and Extreme Ocean States in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Teleconnections and Extreme Ocean States in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Teleconnections and Extreme Ocean States in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean |
title_sort |
teleconnections and extreme ocean states in the northeast atlantic ocean |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-11-2019 https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/16/11/2019/ |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northeast Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northeast Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
eISSN: 1992-0636 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/asr-16-11-2019 https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/16/11/2019/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-11-2019 |
container_title |
Advances in Science and Research |
container_volume |
16 |
container_start_page |
11 |
op_container_end_page |
29 |
_version_ |
1766125996634800128 |