Analysis of the evolution of parametric drivers of high-end sea-level hazards
Climate models are critical tools for developing strategies to manage the risks posed by sea-level rise to coastal communities. While these models are necessary for understanding climate risks, there is a level of uncertainty inherent in each parameter in the models. This model parametric uncertaint...
Published in: | Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-117-2022 https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/8/117/2022/ |
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:ascmo95216 2023-05-15T14:02:18+02:00 Analysis of the evolution of parametric drivers of high-end sea-level hazards Hough, Alana Wong, Tony E. 2022-06-02 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-117-2022 https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/8/117/2022/ eng eng doi:10.5194/ascmo-8-117-2022 https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/8/117/2022/ eISSN: 2364-3587 Text 2022 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-117-2022 2022-06-06T16:22:42Z Climate models are critical tools for developing strategies to manage the risks posed by sea-level rise to coastal communities. While these models are necessary for understanding climate risks, there is a level of uncertainty inherent in each parameter in the models. This model parametric uncertainty leads to uncertainty in future climate risks. Consequently, there is a need to understand how those parameter uncertainties impact our assessment of future climate risks and the efficacy of strategies to manage them. Here, we use random forests to examine the parametric drivers of future climate risk and how the relative importances of those drivers change over time. In this work, we use the Building blocks for Relevant Ice and Climate Knowledge (BRICK) semi-empirical model for sea-level rise. We selected this model because of its balance of computational efficiency and representation of the many different processes that contribute to sea-level rise. We find that the equilibrium climate sensitivity and a factor that scales the effect of aerosols on radiative forcing are consistently the most important climate model parametric uncertainties throughout the 2020 to 2150 interval for both low and high radiative forcing scenarios. The near-term hazards of high-end sea-level rise are driven primarily by thermal expansion, while the longer-term hazards are associated with mass loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Our results highlight the practical importance of considering time-evolving parametric uncertainties when developing strategies to manage future climate risks. Text Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography 8 1 117 134 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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English |
description |
Climate models are critical tools for developing strategies to manage the risks posed by sea-level rise to coastal communities. While these models are necessary for understanding climate risks, there is a level of uncertainty inherent in each parameter in the models. This model parametric uncertainty leads to uncertainty in future climate risks. Consequently, there is a need to understand how those parameter uncertainties impact our assessment of future climate risks and the efficacy of strategies to manage them. Here, we use random forests to examine the parametric drivers of future climate risk and how the relative importances of those drivers change over time. In this work, we use the Building blocks for Relevant Ice and Climate Knowledge (BRICK) semi-empirical model for sea-level rise. We selected this model because of its balance of computational efficiency and representation of the many different processes that contribute to sea-level rise. We find that the equilibrium climate sensitivity and a factor that scales the effect of aerosols on radiative forcing are consistently the most important climate model parametric uncertainties throughout the 2020 to 2150 interval for both low and high radiative forcing scenarios. The near-term hazards of high-end sea-level rise are driven primarily by thermal expansion, while the longer-term hazards are associated with mass loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Our results highlight the practical importance of considering time-evolving parametric uncertainties when developing strategies to manage future climate risks. |
format |
Text |
author |
Hough, Alana Wong, Tony E. |
spellingShingle |
Hough, Alana Wong, Tony E. Analysis of the evolution of parametric drivers of high-end sea-level hazards |
author_facet |
Hough, Alana Wong, Tony E. |
author_sort |
Hough, Alana |
title |
Analysis of the evolution of parametric drivers of high-end sea-level hazards |
title_short |
Analysis of the evolution of parametric drivers of high-end sea-level hazards |
title_full |
Analysis of the evolution of parametric drivers of high-end sea-level hazards |
title_fullStr |
Analysis of the evolution of parametric drivers of high-end sea-level hazards |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis of the evolution of parametric drivers of high-end sea-level hazards |
title_sort |
analysis of the evolution of parametric drivers of high-end sea-level hazards |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-117-2022 https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/8/117/2022/ |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
op_source |
eISSN: 2364-3587 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/ascmo-8-117-2022 https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/8/117/2022/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-117-2022 |
container_title |
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
117 |
op_container_end_page |
134 |
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1766272501159034880 |