Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000
A new, powerful statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk, Poland, during the snowless (May–October) part of the year in the period 1976–2000. Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (t...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:angeo35018 2023-05-15T17:34:22+02:00 Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 Krzyścin, J. W. 2018-09-27 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/21/1887/2003/ eng eng doi:10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/21/1887/2003/ eISSN: 1432-0576 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 2020-07-20T16:27:41Z A new, powerful statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk, Poland, during the snowless (May–October) part of the year in the period 1976–2000. Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (total ozone, percentage of sky covered by low-, mid-, high-level clouds or total solar radiation over Belsk) and non-local ones, i.e. those describing the long-distance forcings on the surface UV-B due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation. Standard indices of the Quasi-Biennial, North Atlantic, El Niño-Southern Oscillations, and the 11-year solar activity were used as non-local regressors. The results there indicate that the MARS procedure is able to reproduce the observed year-to-year and decadal oscillations in the UV data. The MARS model yields better model-observation agreement than an ordinary least-squares fit based on the same set of regressors. It is found that MARS is capable of handling interactions between the local and non-local regressors, suggesting a possible nonlinear nature of connections between variables characterizing the atmospheric transparency over Belsk and the long-distance forcings. MARS enables a reconstruction of the surface UV-B variations over any site based on the cloud and ozone data presently stored on web pages. Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions) Text North Atlantic Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Annales Geophysicae 21 8 1887 1896 |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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English |
description |
A new, powerful statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk, Poland, during the snowless (May–October) part of the year in the period 1976–2000. Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (total ozone, percentage of sky covered by low-, mid-, high-level clouds or total solar radiation over Belsk) and non-local ones, i.e. those describing the long-distance forcings on the surface UV-B due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation. Standard indices of the Quasi-Biennial, North Atlantic, El Niño-Southern Oscillations, and the 11-year solar activity were used as non-local regressors. The results there indicate that the MARS procedure is able to reproduce the observed year-to-year and decadal oscillations in the UV data. The MARS model yields better model-observation agreement than an ordinary least-squares fit based on the same set of regressors. It is found that MARS is capable of handling interactions between the local and non-local regressors, suggesting a possible nonlinear nature of connections between variables characterizing the atmospheric transparency over Belsk and the long-distance forcings. MARS enables a reconstruction of the surface UV-B variations over any site based on the cloud and ozone data presently stored on web pages. Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions) |
format |
Text |
author |
Krzyścin, J. W. |
spellingShingle |
Krzyścin, J. W. Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
author_facet |
Krzyścin, J. W. |
author_sort |
Krzyścin, J. W. |
title |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_short |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_full |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_sort |
nonlinear (mars) modeling of long-term variations of surface uv-b radiation as revealed from the analysis of belsk, poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/21/1887/2003/ |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
eISSN: 1432-0576 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/21/1887/2003/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 |
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Annales Geophysicae |
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21 |
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8 |
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1887 |
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1896 |
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1766133187458629632 |