Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study
The Arctic atmosphere is warming rapidly and its relatively pristine environment is sensitive to the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants. While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles also play a role i...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:acpd99357 2023-05-15T13:21:34+02:00 Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study Whaley, Cynthia H. Mahmood, Rashed Salzen, Knut Winter, Barbara Eckhardt, Sabine Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Stephen Becagli, Silvia Chien, Rong-You Christensen, Jesper Damani, Sujay M. Eleftheriadis, Kostas Evangeliou, Nikolaos Faluvegi, Gregory S. Flanner, Mark Fu, Joshua S. Gauss, Michael Giardi, Fabio Gong, Wanmin Hjorth, Jens Liengaard Huang, Lin Im, Ulas Kanaya, Yugo Krishnan, Srinath Klimont, Zbigniew Kühn, Thomas Langner, Joakim Law, Kathy S. Marelle, Louis Massling, Andreas Olivié, Dirk Onishi, Tatsuo Oshima, Naga Peng, Yiran Plummer, David A. Popovicheva, Olga Pozzoli, Luca Raut, Jean-Christophe Sand, Maria Saunders, Laura N. Schmale, Julia Sharma, Sangeeta Skov, Henrik Taketani, Fumikazu Thomas, Manu A. Traversi, Rita Tsigaridis, Kostas Tsyro, Svetlana Turnock, Steven Vitale, Vito Walker, Kaley A. Wang, Minqi Watson-Parris, Duncan Weiss-Gibbons, Tahya 2021-11-26 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-975 https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/acp-2021-975/ eng eng doi:10.5194/acp-2021-975 https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/acp-2021-975/ eISSN: 1680-7324 Text 2021 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-975 2021-11-29T17:22:29Z The Arctic atmosphere is warming rapidly and its relatively pristine environment is sensitive to the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants. While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles also play a role in Arctic climate on near-term time scales. Atmospheric modelling is critical for understanding the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere, and is used as a tool towards determining SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models, assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over four years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship and aircraft-based observations. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic, though vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfire emissions remain highly uncertain processes. These need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment. Text AMAP Arctic black carbon Global warming Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Arctic |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
description |
The Arctic atmosphere is warming rapidly and its relatively pristine environment is sensitive to the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants. While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles also play a role in Arctic climate on near-term time scales. Atmospheric modelling is critical for understanding the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere, and is used as a tool towards determining SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models, assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over four years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship and aircraft-based observations. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic, though vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfire emissions remain highly uncertain processes. These need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment. |
format |
Text |
author |
Whaley, Cynthia H. Mahmood, Rashed Salzen, Knut Winter, Barbara Eckhardt, Sabine Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Stephen Becagli, Silvia Chien, Rong-You Christensen, Jesper Damani, Sujay M. Eleftheriadis, Kostas Evangeliou, Nikolaos Faluvegi, Gregory S. Flanner, Mark Fu, Joshua S. Gauss, Michael Giardi, Fabio Gong, Wanmin Hjorth, Jens Liengaard Huang, Lin Im, Ulas Kanaya, Yugo Krishnan, Srinath Klimont, Zbigniew Kühn, Thomas Langner, Joakim Law, Kathy S. Marelle, Louis Massling, Andreas Olivié, Dirk Onishi, Tatsuo Oshima, Naga Peng, Yiran Plummer, David A. Popovicheva, Olga Pozzoli, Luca Raut, Jean-Christophe Sand, Maria Saunders, Laura N. Schmale, Julia Sharma, Sangeeta Skov, Henrik Taketani, Fumikazu Thomas, Manu A. Traversi, Rita Tsigaridis, Kostas Tsyro, Svetlana Turnock, Steven Vitale, Vito Walker, Kaley A. Wang, Minqi Watson-Parris, Duncan Weiss-Gibbons, Tahya |
spellingShingle |
Whaley, Cynthia H. Mahmood, Rashed Salzen, Knut Winter, Barbara Eckhardt, Sabine Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Stephen Becagli, Silvia Chien, Rong-You Christensen, Jesper Damani, Sujay M. Eleftheriadis, Kostas Evangeliou, Nikolaos Faluvegi, Gregory S. Flanner, Mark Fu, Joshua S. Gauss, Michael Giardi, Fabio Gong, Wanmin Hjorth, Jens Liengaard Huang, Lin Im, Ulas Kanaya, Yugo Krishnan, Srinath Klimont, Zbigniew Kühn, Thomas Langner, Joakim Law, Kathy S. Marelle, Louis Massling, Andreas Olivié, Dirk Onishi, Tatsuo Oshima, Naga Peng, Yiran Plummer, David A. Popovicheva, Olga Pozzoli, Luca Raut, Jean-Christophe Sand, Maria Saunders, Laura N. Schmale, Julia Sharma, Sangeeta Skov, Henrik Taketani, Fumikazu Thomas, Manu A. Traversi, Rita Tsigaridis, Kostas Tsyro, Svetlana Turnock, Steven Vitale, Vito Walker, Kaley A. Wang, Minqi Watson-Parris, Duncan Weiss-Gibbons, Tahya Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study |
author_facet |
Whaley, Cynthia H. Mahmood, Rashed Salzen, Knut Winter, Barbara Eckhardt, Sabine Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Stephen Becagli, Silvia Chien, Rong-You Christensen, Jesper Damani, Sujay M. Eleftheriadis, Kostas Evangeliou, Nikolaos Faluvegi, Gregory S. Flanner, Mark Fu, Joshua S. Gauss, Michael Giardi, Fabio Gong, Wanmin Hjorth, Jens Liengaard Huang, Lin Im, Ulas Kanaya, Yugo Krishnan, Srinath Klimont, Zbigniew Kühn, Thomas Langner, Joakim Law, Kathy S. Marelle, Louis Massling, Andreas Olivié, Dirk Onishi, Tatsuo Oshima, Naga Peng, Yiran Plummer, David A. Popovicheva, Olga Pozzoli, Luca Raut, Jean-Christophe Sand, Maria Saunders, Laura N. Schmale, Julia Sharma, Sangeeta Skov, Henrik Taketani, Fumikazu Thomas, Manu A. Traversi, Rita Tsigaridis, Kostas Tsyro, Svetlana Turnock, Steven Vitale, Vito Walker, Kaley A. Wang, Minqi Watson-Parris, Duncan Weiss-Gibbons, Tahya |
author_sort |
Whaley, Cynthia H. |
title |
Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study |
title_short |
Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study |
title_full |
Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study |
title_fullStr |
Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study |
title_sort |
model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the arctic monitoring and assessment programme: a multi-species, multi-model study |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-975 https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/acp-2021-975/ |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
AMAP Arctic black carbon Global warming |
genre_facet |
AMAP Arctic black carbon Global warming |
op_source |
eISSN: 1680-7324 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/acp-2021-975 https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/acp-2021-975/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-975 |
_version_ |
1766360324505600000 |