Ozone super recovery cancelled in the Antarctic upper stratosphere
Ozone is expected to fully recover from the CFC-era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere accelerates ozone production and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st cent...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:acpd93051 2023-05-15T13:31:40+02:00 Ozone super recovery cancelled in the Antarctic upper stratosphere Maliniemi, Ville Nesse Tyssøy, Hilde Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. 2021-02-23 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-149 https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/acp-2021-149/ eng eng doi:10.5194/acp-2021-149 https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/acp-2021-149/ eISSN: 1680-7324 Text 2021 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-149 2021-03-01T17:22:15Z Ozone is expected to fully recover from the CFC-era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere accelerates ozone production and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, equatorial upper startosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 parts per million more ozone in scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre CFC-era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NO x ) descending from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NO x is formed by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) in the thermosphere and the upper mesosphere, and descends faster through the mesosphere in stronger scenarios. This indicates that the EEP indirect effect will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution, and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere. Text Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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English |
description |
Ozone is expected to fully recover from the CFC-era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere accelerates ozone production and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, equatorial upper startosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 parts per million more ozone in scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre CFC-era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NO x ) descending from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NO x is formed by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) in the thermosphere and the upper mesosphere, and descends faster through the mesosphere in stronger scenarios. This indicates that the EEP indirect effect will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution, and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere. |
format |
Text |
author |
Maliniemi, Ville Nesse Tyssøy, Hilde Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. |
spellingShingle |
Maliniemi, Ville Nesse Tyssøy, Hilde Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. Ozone super recovery cancelled in the Antarctic upper stratosphere |
author_facet |
Maliniemi, Ville Nesse Tyssøy, Hilde Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. |
author_sort |
Maliniemi, Ville |
title |
Ozone super recovery cancelled in the Antarctic upper stratosphere |
title_short |
Ozone super recovery cancelled in the Antarctic upper stratosphere |
title_full |
Ozone super recovery cancelled in the Antarctic upper stratosphere |
title_fullStr |
Ozone super recovery cancelled in the Antarctic upper stratosphere |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ozone super recovery cancelled in the Antarctic upper stratosphere |
title_sort |
ozone super recovery cancelled in the antarctic upper stratosphere |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-149 https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/acp-2021-149/ |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
eISSN: 1680-7324 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/acp-2021-149 https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/acp-2021-149/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-149 |
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1766020028449161216 |