The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty
Aerosol measurements over the Southern Ocean are used to constrain aerosol-cloud interaction radiative forcing uncertainty in a global climate model. Aerosol forcing uncertainty is quantified using one million climate model variants that sample the uncertainty in nearly 30 model parameters. Ship-bas...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:acpd81867 2023-05-15T13:35:08+02:00 The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty Regayre, Leighton A. Schmale, Julia Johnson, Jill S. Tatzelt, Christian Baccarini, Andrea Henning, Silvia Yoshioka, Masaru Stratmann, Frank Gysel-Beer, Martin Carslaw, Ken S. 2019-12-04 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1085 https://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2019-1085/ eng eng doi:10.5194/acp-2019-1085 https://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2019-1085/ eISSN: 1680-7324 Text 2019 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1085 2019-12-24T09:48:08Z Aerosol measurements over the Southern Ocean are used to constrain aerosol-cloud interaction radiative forcing uncertainty in a global climate model. Aerosol forcing uncertainty is quantified using one million climate model variants that sample the uncertainty in nearly 30 model parameters. Ship-based measurements of cloud condensation nuclei, particle number concentrations and sulfate mass concentrations from the Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition: Study of Preindustrial-like Aerosols and Their Climate Effects (ACE-SPACE) are used to identify observationally implausible variants and thereby reduce the spread in the simulated forcing. Southern Ocean measurements strongly constrain natural aerosol emissions: default sea spray emissions in the model need to be increased by around a factor of 3 to be consistent with measurements. Aerosol forcing uncertainty is reduced by around 7 % using these measurements, which is comparable to the 8 % reduction achieved using an extensive set of over 9000 predominantly Northern Hemisphere measurements. The radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions (RF aci ) is constrained to −2.61 to −1.10 W m −2 (95 % confidence) and the effective radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF aci ) is constrained to −2.43 to −0.54 W m −2 . When Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurements are combined, the uncertainty in RF aci is reduced by 21 % and the strongest 20 % of forcing values are ruled out as implausible. In this combined constraint the observationally plausible RF aci is around 0.17 W m −2 weaker (less negative) with credible values ranging from −2.51 to −1.17 W m −2 and from −2.18 to −1.46 W m −2 when using one standard deviation to quantify the uncertainty. The Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurement datasets are complementary because they constrain different processes. These results highlight the value of remote marine aerosol measurements. Text Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
description |
Aerosol measurements over the Southern Ocean are used to constrain aerosol-cloud interaction radiative forcing uncertainty in a global climate model. Aerosol forcing uncertainty is quantified using one million climate model variants that sample the uncertainty in nearly 30 model parameters. Ship-based measurements of cloud condensation nuclei, particle number concentrations and sulfate mass concentrations from the Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition: Study of Preindustrial-like Aerosols and Their Climate Effects (ACE-SPACE) are used to identify observationally implausible variants and thereby reduce the spread in the simulated forcing. Southern Ocean measurements strongly constrain natural aerosol emissions: default sea spray emissions in the model need to be increased by around a factor of 3 to be consistent with measurements. Aerosol forcing uncertainty is reduced by around 7 % using these measurements, which is comparable to the 8 % reduction achieved using an extensive set of over 9000 predominantly Northern Hemisphere measurements. The radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions (RF aci ) is constrained to −2.61 to −1.10 W m −2 (95 % confidence) and the effective radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF aci ) is constrained to −2.43 to −0.54 W m −2 . When Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurements are combined, the uncertainty in RF aci is reduced by 21 % and the strongest 20 % of forcing values are ruled out as implausible. In this combined constraint the observationally plausible RF aci is around 0.17 W m −2 weaker (less negative) with credible values ranging from −2.51 to −1.17 W m −2 and from −2.18 to −1.46 W m −2 when using one standard deviation to quantify the uncertainty. The Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurement datasets are complementary because they constrain different processes. These results highlight the value of remote marine aerosol measurements. |
format |
Text |
author |
Regayre, Leighton A. Schmale, Julia Johnson, Jill S. Tatzelt, Christian Baccarini, Andrea Henning, Silvia Yoshioka, Masaru Stratmann, Frank Gysel-Beer, Martin Carslaw, Ken S. |
spellingShingle |
Regayre, Leighton A. Schmale, Julia Johnson, Jill S. Tatzelt, Christian Baccarini, Andrea Henning, Silvia Yoshioka, Masaru Stratmann, Frank Gysel-Beer, Martin Carslaw, Ken S. The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
author_facet |
Regayre, Leighton A. Schmale, Julia Johnson, Jill S. Tatzelt, Christian Baccarini, Andrea Henning, Silvia Yoshioka, Masaru Stratmann, Frank Gysel-Beer, Martin Carslaw, Ken S. |
author_sort |
Regayre, Leighton A. |
title |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_short |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_full |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_fullStr |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_full_unstemmed |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_sort |
value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1085 https://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2019-1085/ |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
eISSN: 1680-7324 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/acp-2019-1085 https://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2019-1085/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1085 |
_version_ |
1766061317450366976 |