Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distri...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/11041/2021/ |
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:acp93051 2023-05-15T14:02:17+02:00 Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century Maliniemi, Ville Nesse Tyssøy, Hilde Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. 2021-07-21 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/11041/2021/ eng eng doi:10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/11041/2021/ eISSN: 1680-7324 Text 2021 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 2021-07-26T16:22:27Z Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, the equatorial upper stratosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 ppm more ozone in the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to the conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre-CFC era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides ( NO x ) descending faster from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NO x in the polar thermosphere and upper mesosphere is mainly produced by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and partly by solar UV via transport from low latitudes. Our results indicate that the thermospheric/upper mesospheric NO x will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere. Text Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21 14 11041 11052 |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
description |
Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, the equatorial upper stratosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 ppm more ozone in the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to the conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre-CFC era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides ( NO x ) descending faster from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NO x in the polar thermosphere and upper mesosphere is mainly produced by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and partly by solar UV via transport from low latitudes. Our results indicate that the thermospheric/upper mesospheric NO x will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere. |
format |
Text |
author |
Maliniemi, Ville Nesse Tyssøy, Hilde Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. |
spellingShingle |
Maliniemi, Ville Nesse Tyssøy, Hilde Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
author_facet |
Maliniemi, Ville Nesse Tyssøy, Hilde Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. |
author_sort |
Maliniemi, Ville |
title |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_short |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_full |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_sort |
effects of enhanced downwelling of nox on antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/11041/2021/ |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
eISSN: 1680-7324 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/11041/2021/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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21 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
11041 |
op_container_end_page |
11052 |
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1766272451232137216 |