The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty
Aerosol measurements over the Southern Ocean are used to constrain aerosol–cloud interaction radiative forcing (RF aci ) uncertainty in a global climate model. Forcing uncertainty is quantified using 1 million climate model variants that sample the uncertainty in nearly 30 model parameters. Measurem...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:acp81867 2023-05-15T13:31:39+02:00 The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty Regayre, Leighton A. Schmale, Julia Johnson, Jill S. Tatzelt, Christian Baccarini, Andrea Henning, Silvia Yoshioka, Masaru Stratmann, Frank Gysel-Beer, Martin Grosvenor, Daniel P. Carslaw, Ken S. 2020-08-28 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10063-2020 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/10063/2020/ eng eng doi:10.5194/acp-20-10063-2020 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/10063/2020/ eISSN: 1680-7324 Text 2020 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10063-2020 2020-08-31T16:22:12Z Aerosol measurements over the Southern Ocean are used to constrain aerosol–cloud interaction radiative forcing (RF aci ) uncertainty in a global climate model. Forcing uncertainty is quantified using 1 million climate model variants that sample the uncertainty in nearly 30 model parameters. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei and other aerosol properties from an Antarctic circumnavigation expedition strongly constrain natural aerosol emissions: default sea spray emissions need to be increased by around a factor of 3 to be consistent with measurements. Forcing uncertainty is reduced by around 7 % using this set of several hundred measurements, which is comparable to the 8 % reduction achieved using a diverse and extensive set of over 9000 predominantly Northern Hemisphere measurements. When Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurements are combined, uncertainty in RF aci is reduced by 21 %, and the strongest 20 % of forcing values are ruled out as implausible. In this combined constraint, observationally plausible RF aci is around 0.17 W m −2 weaker (less negative) with 95 % credible values ranging from −2.51 to −1.17 W m −2 (standard deviation of −2.18 to −1.46 W m −2 ). The Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurement datasets are complementary because they constrain different processes. These results highlight the value of remote marine aerosol measurements. Text Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Antarctic Southern Ocean Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20 16 10063 10072 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
Aerosol measurements over the Southern Ocean are used to constrain aerosol–cloud interaction radiative forcing (RF aci ) uncertainty in a global climate model. Forcing uncertainty is quantified using 1 million climate model variants that sample the uncertainty in nearly 30 model parameters. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei and other aerosol properties from an Antarctic circumnavigation expedition strongly constrain natural aerosol emissions: default sea spray emissions need to be increased by around a factor of 3 to be consistent with measurements. Forcing uncertainty is reduced by around 7 % using this set of several hundred measurements, which is comparable to the 8 % reduction achieved using a diverse and extensive set of over 9000 predominantly Northern Hemisphere measurements. When Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurements are combined, uncertainty in RF aci is reduced by 21 %, and the strongest 20 % of forcing values are ruled out as implausible. In this combined constraint, observationally plausible RF aci is around 0.17 W m −2 weaker (less negative) with 95 % credible values ranging from −2.51 to −1.17 W m −2 (standard deviation of −2.18 to −1.46 W m −2 ). The Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurement datasets are complementary because they constrain different processes. These results highlight the value of remote marine aerosol measurements. |
format |
Text |
author |
Regayre, Leighton A. Schmale, Julia Johnson, Jill S. Tatzelt, Christian Baccarini, Andrea Henning, Silvia Yoshioka, Masaru Stratmann, Frank Gysel-Beer, Martin Grosvenor, Daniel P. Carslaw, Ken S. |
spellingShingle |
Regayre, Leighton A. Schmale, Julia Johnson, Jill S. Tatzelt, Christian Baccarini, Andrea Henning, Silvia Yoshioka, Masaru Stratmann, Frank Gysel-Beer, Martin Grosvenor, Daniel P. Carslaw, Ken S. The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
author_facet |
Regayre, Leighton A. Schmale, Julia Johnson, Jill S. Tatzelt, Christian Baccarini, Andrea Henning, Silvia Yoshioka, Masaru Stratmann, Frank Gysel-Beer, Martin Grosvenor, Daniel P. Carslaw, Ken S. |
author_sort |
Regayre, Leighton A. |
title |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_short |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_full |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_fullStr |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_full_unstemmed |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_sort |
value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10063-2020 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/10063/2020/ |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
eISSN: 1680-7324 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/acp-20-10063-2020 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/10063/2020/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10063-2020 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
20 |
container_issue |
16 |
container_start_page |
10063 |
op_container_end_page |
10072 |
_version_ |
1766019672836145152 |