Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering
Climate emulators trained on existing simulations can be used to project project the climate effects that result from different possible future pathways of anthropogenic forcing, without further relying on general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We extend this idea to include different amounts...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:acp52995 2023-05-15T18:17:46+02:00 Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering MacMartin, Douglas G. Kravitz, Ben 2018-09-19 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016 https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/15789/2016/ eng eng doi:10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016 https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/15789/2016/ eISSN: 1680-7324 Text 2018 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016 2019-12-24T09:51:46Z Climate emulators trained on existing simulations can be used to project project the climate effects that result from different possible future pathways of anthropogenic forcing, without further relying on general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We extend this idea to include different amounts of solar geoengineering in addition to different pathways of greenhouse gas concentrations, by training emulators from a multi-model ensemble of simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The emulator is trained on the abrupt 4 × CO 2 and a compensating solar reduction simulation (G1), and evaluated by comparing predictions against a simulated 1 % per year CO 2 increase and a similarly smaller solar reduction (G2). We find reasonable agreement in most models for predicting changes in temperature and precipitation (including regional effects), and annual-mean Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, with the difference between simulation and prediction typically being smaller than natural variability. This verifies that the linearity assumption used in constructing the emulator is sufficient for these variables over the range of forcing considered. Annual-minimum Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is less well predicted, indicating a limit to the linearity assumption. Text Sea ice Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16 24 15789 15799 |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
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English |
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Climate emulators trained on existing simulations can be used to project project the climate effects that result from different possible future pathways of anthropogenic forcing, without further relying on general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We extend this idea to include different amounts of solar geoengineering in addition to different pathways of greenhouse gas concentrations, by training emulators from a multi-model ensemble of simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The emulator is trained on the abrupt 4 × CO 2 and a compensating solar reduction simulation (G1), and evaluated by comparing predictions against a simulated 1 % per year CO 2 increase and a similarly smaller solar reduction (G2). We find reasonable agreement in most models for predicting changes in temperature and precipitation (including regional effects), and annual-mean Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, with the difference between simulation and prediction typically being smaller than natural variability. This verifies that the linearity assumption used in constructing the emulator is sufficient for these variables over the range of forcing considered. Annual-minimum Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is less well predicted, indicating a limit to the linearity assumption. |
format |
Text |
author |
MacMartin, Douglas G. Kravitz, Ben |
spellingShingle |
MacMartin, Douglas G. Kravitz, Ben Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering |
author_facet |
MacMartin, Douglas G. Kravitz, Ben |
author_sort |
MacMartin, Douglas G. |
title |
Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering |
title_short |
Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering |
title_full |
Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering |
title_fullStr |
Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering |
title_sort |
dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016 https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/15789/2016/ |
genre |
Sea ice |
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Sea ice |
op_source |
eISSN: 1680-7324 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016 https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/15789/2016/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016 |
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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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16 |
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24 |
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15789 |
op_container_end_page |
15799 |
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1766192936571109376 |