Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates
The best estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) constrained based on the instrumental record of historical warming becomes coherent with other lines of evidence when the dependence of radiative feedback on the pattern of surface temperature change (pattern effect) is incorporated. Pattern...
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ftcopernicus:oai:publications.copernicus.org:acp106661 2023-07-30T04:06:47+02:00 Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates Modak, Angshuman Mauritsen, Thorsten 2023-07-11 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/7535/2023/ eng eng doi:10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/7535/2023/ eISSN: 1680-7324 Text 2023 ftcopernicus https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023 2023-07-17T16:24:18Z The best estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) constrained based on the instrumental record of historical warming becomes coherent with other lines of evidence when the dependence of radiative feedback on the pattern of surface temperature change (pattern effect) is incorporated. Pattern effect strength is usually estimated with atmosphere-only model simulations forced with observed historical sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice change and constant pre-industrial forcing. However, recent studies indicate that pattern effect estimates depend on the choice of SST boundary condition dataset, due to differences in the measurement sources and the techniques used to merge and construct them. Here, we systematically explore this dataset dependency by applying seven different observed SST datasets to the MPI-ESM1.2-LR model covering 1871–2017. We find that the pattern effect ranges from - 0.01 ± 0.09 <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="777cc679781f35d6dc1f625b1f7bf436"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-23-7535-2023-ie00001.svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" src="acp-23-7535-2023-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> to 0.42±0.10 W m −2 K −1 (standard error), whereby the commonly used Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (AMIPII) dataset produces by far the largest estimate. When accounting for the generally weaker pattern effect in MPI-ESM1.2-LR compared to other models, as well as dataset dependency and intermodel spread, we obtain a combined pattern effect estimate of 0.37 W m −2 K −1 [ −0.14 to 0.88 W m −2 K −1 ] (5th–95th percentiles) and a resulting instrumental record ECS estimate of 3.2 K [1.8 to 11.0 K], which as a result of the weaker pattern effect is slightly lower and better constrained than in previous studies. Text Sea ice Copernicus Publications: E-Journals Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 23 13 7535 7549 |
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Open Polar |
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Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
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ftcopernicus |
language |
English |
description |
The best estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) constrained based on the instrumental record of historical warming becomes coherent with other lines of evidence when the dependence of radiative feedback on the pattern of surface temperature change (pattern effect) is incorporated. Pattern effect strength is usually estimated with atmosphere-only model simulations forced with observed historical sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice change and constant pre-industrial forcing. However, recent studies indicate that pattern effect estimates depend on the choice of SST boundary condition dataset, due to differences in the measurement sources and the techniques used to merge and construct them. Here, we systematically explore this dataset dependency by applying seven different observed SST datasets to the MPI-ESM1.2-LR model covering 1871–2017. We find that the pattern effect ranges from - 0.01 ± 0.09 <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="777cc679781f35d6dc1f625b1f7bf436"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-23-7535-2023-ie00001.svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" src="acp-23-7535-2023-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> to 0.42±0.10 W m −2 K −1 (standard error), whereby the commonly used Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (AMIPII) dataset produces by far the largest estimate. When accounting for the generally weaker pattern effect in MPI-ESM1.2-LR compared to other models, as well as dataset dependency and intermodel spread, we obtain a combined pattern effect estimate of 0.37 W m −2 K −1 [ −0.14 to 0.88 W m −2 K −1 ] (5th–95th percentiles) and a resulting instrumental record ECS estimate of 3.2 K [1.8 to 11.0 K], which as a result of the weaker pattern effect is slightly lower and better constrained than in previous studies. |
format |
Text |
author |
Modak, Angshuman Mauritsen, Thorsten |
spellingShingle |
Modak, Angshuman Mauritsen, Thorsten Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates |
author_facet |
Modak, Angshuman Mauritsen, Thorsten |
author_sort |
Modak, Angshuman |
title |
Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates |
title_short |
Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates |
title_full |
Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates |
title_fullStr |
Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates |
title_full_unstemmed |
Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates |
title_sort |
better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/7535/2023/ |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
eISSN: 1680-7324 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/7535/2023/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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23 |
container_issue |
13 |
container_start_page |
7535 |
op_container_end_page |
7549 |
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1772819692953534464 |