Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate:results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)
The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 ye...
Published in: | Climate of the Past |
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Language: | English |
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2021
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Online Access: | https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/largescale-features-of-last-interglacial-climate(f8fa371f-7f1b-450f-bc75-89d6ee37116e).html https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 https://curis.ku.dk/ws/files/260404222/cp_17_63_2021.pdf |
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English |
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EARTH SYSTEM MODEL AFRICAN MONSOON ANTARCTIC ICE POLAR AMPLIFICATION CHRONOLOGY AICC2012 EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN MIDHOLOCENE TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY IMPACTS |
spellingShingle |
EARTH SYSTEM MODEL AFRICAN MONSOON ANTARCTIC ICE POLAR AMPLIFICATION CHRONOLOGY AICC2012 EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN MIDHOLOCENE TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY IMPACTS Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Brady, Esther C. Zhao, Anni Brierley, Chris M. Axford, Yarrow Capron, Emilie Govin, Aline Hoffman, Jeremy S. Isaacs, Elizabeth Kageyama, Masa Scussolini, Paolo Tzedakis, Polychronis C. Williams, Charles J. R. Wolff, Eric Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Braconnot, Pascale Buarque, Silvana Ramos Cao, Jian de Vernal, Anne Guarino, Maria Vittoria Guo, Chuncheng LeGrande, Allegra N. Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin J. Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina A. Nisancioglu, Kerim H. O'ishi, Ryouta Melia, David Salas y Shi, Xiaoxu Sicard, Marie Sime, Louise Stepanek, Christian Tomas, Robert Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas K. H. Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zheng, Weipeng Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate:results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
topic_facet |
EARTH SYSTEM MODEL AFRICAN MONSOON ANTARCTIC ICE POLAR AMPLIFICATION CHRONOLOGY AICC2012 EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN MIDHOLOCENE TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY IMPACTS |
description |
The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the mid-Holocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 degrees C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model-data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Brady, Esther C. Zhao, Anni Brierley, Chris M. Axford, Yarrow Capron, Emilie Govin, Aline Hoffman, Jeremy S. Isaacs, Elizabeth Kageyama, Masa Scussolini, Paolo Tzedakis, Polychronis C. Williams, Charles J. R. Wolff, Eric Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Braconnot, Pascale Buarque, Silvana Ramos Cao, Jian de Vernal, Anne Guarino, Maria Vittoria Guo, Chuncheng LeGrande, Allegra N. Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin J. Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina A. Nisancioglu, Kerim H. O'ishi, Ryouta Melia, David Salas y Shi, Xiaoxu Sicard, Marie Sime, Louise Stepanek, Christian Tomas, Robert Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas K. H. Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zheng, Weipeng |
author_facet |
Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Brady, Esther C. Zhao, Anni Brierley, Chris M. Axford, Yarrow Capron, Emilie Govin, Aline Hoffman, Jeremy S. Isaacs, Elizabeth Kageyama, Masa Scussolini, Paolo Tzedakis, Polychronis C. Williams, Charles J. R. Wolff, Eric Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Braconnot, Pascale Buarque, Silvana Ramos Cao, Jian de Vernal, Anne Guarino, Maria Vittoria Guo, Chuncheng LeGrande, Allegra N. Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin J. Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina A. Nisancioglu, Kerim H. O'ishi, Ryouta Melia, David Salas y Shi, Xiaoxu Sicard, Marie Sime, Louise Stepanek, Christian Tomas, Robert Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas K. H. Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zheng, Weipeng |
author_sort |
Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. |
title |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate:results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_short |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate:results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_full |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate:results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_fullStr |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate:results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate:results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_sort |
large-scale features of last interglacial climate:results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the coupled model intercomparison project (cmip6)-paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project (pmip4) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/largescale-features-of-last-interglacial-climate(f8fa371f-7f1b-450f-bc75-89d6ee37116e).html https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 https://curis.ku.dk/ws/files/260404222/cp_17_63_2021.pdf |
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Antarctic Arctic Canada |
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Antarctic Arctic Canada |
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Antarc* Antarctic Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice |
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Antarc* Antarctic Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice |
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Otto-Bliesner , B L , Brady , E C , Zhao , A , Brierley , C M , Axford , Y , Capron , E , Govin , A , Hoffman , J S , Isaacs , E , Kageyama , M , Scussolini , P , Tzedakis , P C , Williams , C J R , Wolff , E , Abe-Ouchi , A , Braconnot , P , Buarque , S R , Cao , J , de Vernal , A , Guarino , M V , Guo , C , LeGrande , A N , Lohmann , G , Meissner , K J , Menviel , L , Morozova , P A , Nisancioglu , K H , O'ishi , R , Melia , D S Y , Shi , X , Sicard , M , Sime , L , Stepanek , C , Tomas , R , Volodin , E , Yeung , N K H , Zhang , Q , Zhang , Z & Zheng , W 2021 , ' Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate : results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) ' , Climate of the Past , vol. 17 , no. 1 , pp. 63-94 . https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 |
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Climate of the Past |
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ftcopenhagenunip:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/f8fa371f-7f1b-450f-bc75-89d6ee37116e 2024-06-09T07:40:41+00:00 Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate:results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Brady, Esther C. Zhao, Anni Brierley, Chris M. Axford, Yarrow Capron, Emilie Govin, Aline Hoffman, Jeremy S. Isaacs, Elizabeth Kageyama, Masa Scussolini, Paolo Tzedakis, Polychronis C. Williams, Charles J. R. Wolff, Eric Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Braconnot, Pascale Buarque, Silvana Ramos Cao, Jian de Vernal, Anne Guarino, Maria Vittoria Guo, Chuncheng LeGrande, Allegra N. Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin J. Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina A. Nisancioglu, Kerim H. O'ishi, Ryouta Melia, David Salas y Shi, Xiaoxu Sicard, Marie Sime, Louise Stepanek, Christian Tomas, Robert Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas K. H. Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zheng, Weipeng 2021-01-11 application/pdf https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/largescale-features-of-last-interglacial-climate(f8fa371f-7f1b-450f-bc75-89d6ee37116e).html https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 https://curis.ku.dk/ws/files/260404222/cp_17_63_2021.pdf eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Otto-Bliesner , B L , Brady , E C , Zhao , A , Brierley , C M , Axford , Y , Capron , E , Govin , A , Hoffman , J S , Isaacs , E , Kageyama , M , Scussolini , P , Tzedakis , P C , Williams , C J R , Wolff , E , Abe-Ouchi , A , Braconnot , P , Buarque , S R , Cao , J , de Vernal , A , Guarino , M V , Guo , C , LeGrande , A N , Lohmann , G , Meissner , K J , Menviel , L , Morozova , P A , Nisancioglu , K H , O'ishi , R , Melia , D S Y , Shi , X , Sicard , M , Sime , L , Stepanek , C , Tomas , R , Volodin , E , Yeung , N K H , Zhang , Q , Zhang , Z & Zheng , W 2021 , ' Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate : results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) ' , Climate of the Past , vol. 17 , no. 1 , pp. 63-94 . https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 EARTH SYSTEM MODEL AFRICAN MONSOON ANTARCTIC ICE POLAR AMPLIFICATION CHRONOLOGY AICC2012 EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN MIDHOLOCENE TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY IMPACTS article 2021 ftcopenhagenunip https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 2024-05-16T11:29:20Z The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the mid-Holocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 degrees C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model-data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice University of Copenhagen: Research Antarctic Arctic Canada Climate of the Past 17 1 63 94 |