DTU-DADS-Aqua:A simulation framework for modelling waterborne spread of highly infectious pathogens in marine aquaculture
Simulation models are useful tools to predict and elucidate the effects of factors influencing the occurrence and spread of epidemics in animal populations, evaluate the effectiveness of different control strategies and ultimately inform decision-makers about mitigations to reduce risk. There is a p...
Published in: | Transboundary and Emerging Diseases |
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2022
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Online Access: | https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/dtudadsaqua(ef510ca5-e278-46f0-89db-fd24e0d663a7).html https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14195 |
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ftcopenhagenunip:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/ef510ca5-e278-46f0-89db-fd24e0d663a7 2024-06-09T07:44:50+00:00 DTU-DADS-Aqua:A simulation framework for modelling waterborne spread of highly infectious pathogens in marine aquaculture Romero, João F. Gardner, Ian Price, Derek Halasa, Tariq Thakur, Krishna 2022 https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/dtudadsaqua(ef510ca5-e278-46f0-89db-fd24e0d663a7).html https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14195 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Romero , J F , Gardner , I , Price , D , Halasa , T & Thakur , K 2022 , ' DTU-DADS-Aqua : A simulation framework for modelling waterborne spread of highly infectious pathogens in marine aquaculture ' , Transboundary and Emerging Diseases , vol. 69 , no. 4 , pp. 2029-2044 . https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14195 aquaculture aquatic epidemiology infectious disease dynamics seaway distance simulation model article 2022 ftcopenhagenunip https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14195 2024-05-16T11:29:21Z Simulation models are useful tools to predict and elucidate the effects of factors influencing the occurrence and spread of epidemics in animal populations, evaluate the effectiveness of different control strategies and ultimately inform decision-makers about mitigations to reduce risk. There is a paucity of simulation models to study waterborne transmission of viral and bacterial pathogens in marine environments. We developed a stochastic, spatiotemporal hybrid simulation model (DTU-DADS-Aqua) that incorporates a compartmental model for infection spread within net-pens, an agent-based model for infection spread between net-pens within and between sites and uses seaway distance to inform farm-site hydroconnectivity. The model includes processes to simulate infection transmission and control over surveillance, detection and depopulation measures. Different what-if scenarios can be explored according to the input data provided and user-defined parameter values, such as daily surveillance and depopulation capacities or increased animal mortality that triggers diagnostic testing to detect infection. The latter can be easily defined in a software application, in which results are summarized after each simulation. To demonstrate capabilities of the model, we simulated the spread of infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAv) for realistic scenarios in a transboundary population of farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in New Brunswick, Canada and Maine, United States. We assessed the progression of infection in the different simulated outbreak scenarios, allowing for variation in the control strategies adopted for ISAv. Model results showed that improved disease detection, coupled with increasing surveillance visits to farm-sites and increased culling capacity for depopulation of infected net-pens reduced the number of infected net-pens and outbreak duration but the number of ISA-infected farm sites was minimally affected. DTU-DADS-Aqua is a flexible modelling framework, which can be applied to study different infectious ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Atlantic salmon Salmo salar University of Copenhagen: Research Canada Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 69 4 2029 2044 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Copenhagen: Research |
op_collection_id |
ftcopenhagenunip |
language |
English |
topic |
aquaculture aquatic epidemiology infectious disease dynamics seaway distance simulation model |
spellingShingle |
aquaculture aquatic epidemiology infectious disease dynamics seaway distance simulation model Romero, João F. Gardner, Ian Price, Derek Halasa, Tariq Thakur, Krishna DTU-DADS-Aqua:A simulation framework for modelling waterborne spread of highly infectious pathogens in marine aquaculture |
topic_facet |
aquaculture aquatic epidemiology infectious disease dynamics seaway distance simulation model |
description |
Simulation models are useful tools to predict and elucidate the effects of factors influencing the occurrence and spread of epidemics in animal populations, evaluate the effectiveness of different control strategies and ultimately inform decision-makers about mitigations to reduce risk. There is a paucity of simulation models to study waterborne transmission of viral and bacterial pathogens in marine environments. We developed a stochastic, spatiotemporal hybrid simulation model (DTU-DADS-Aqua) that incorporates a compartmental model for infection spread within net-pens, an agent-based model for infection spread between net-pens within and between sites and uses seaway distance to inform farm-site hydroconnectivity. The model includes processes to simulate infection transmission and control over surveillance, detection and depopulation measures. Different what-if scenarios can be explored according to the input data provided and user-defined parameter values, such as daily surveillance and depopulation capacities or increased animal mortality that triggers diagnostic testing to detect infection. The latter can be easily defined in a software application, in which results are summarized after each simulation. To demonstrate capabilities of the model, we simulated the spread of infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAv) for realistic scenarios in a transboundary population of farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in New Brunswick, Canada and Maine, United States. We assessed the progression of infection in the different simulated outbreak scenarios, allowing for variation in the control strategies adopted for ISAv. Model results showed that improved disease detection, coupled with increasing surveillance visits to farm-sites and increased culling capacity for depopulation of infected net-pens reduced the number of infected net-pens and outbreak duration but the number of ISA-infected farm sites was minimally affected. DTU-DADS-Aqua is a flexible modelling framework, which can be applied to study different infectious ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Romero, João F. Gardner, Ian Price, Derek Halasa, Tariq Thakur, Krishna |
author_facet |
Romero, João F. Gardner, Ian Price, Derek Halasa, Tariq Thakur, Krishna |
author_sort |
Romero, João F. |
title |
DTU-DADS-Aqua:A simulation framework for modelling waterborne spread of highly infectious pathogens in marine aquaculture |
title_short |
DTU-DADS-Aqua:A simulation framework for modelling waterborne spread of highly infectious pathogens in marine aquaculture |
title_full |
DTU-DADS-Aqua:A simulation framework for modelling waterborne spread of highly infectious pathogens in marine aquaculture |
title_fullStr |
DTU-DADS-Aqua:A simulation framework for modelling waterborne spread of highly infectious pathogens in marine aquaculture |
title_full_unstemmed |
DTU-DADS-Aqua:A simulation framework for modelling waterborne spread of highly infectious pathogens in marine aquaculture |
title_sort |
dtu-dads-aqua:a simulation framework for modelling waterborne spread of highly infectious pathogens in marine aquaculture |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/dtudadsaqua(ef510ca5-e278-46f0-89db-fd24e0d663a7).html https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14195 |
geographic |
Canada |
geographic_facet |
Canada |
genre |
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
genre_facet |
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
op_source |
Romero , J F , Gardner , I , Price , D , Halasa , T & Thakur , K 2022 , ' DTU-DADS-Aqua : A simulation framework for modelling waterborne spread of highly infectious pathogens in marine aquaculture ' , Transboundary and Emerging Diseases , vol. 69 , no. 4 , pp. 2029-2044 . https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14195 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14195 |
container_title |
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases |
container_volume |
69 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
2029 |
op_container_end_page |
2044 |
_version_ |
1801373647358656512 |