Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries:An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Background: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of...
Published in: | The Lancet |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2017
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Online Access: | https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/measuring-progress-and-projecting-attainment-on-the-basis-of-past-trends-of-the-healthrelated-sustainable-development-goals-in-188-countries(c50fbddc-e82f-4e32-bc82-79a635057416).html https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X https://curis.ku.dk/ws/files/375836836/1_s2.0_S014067361732336X_main.pdf |
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Background: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods: We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 25th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 975th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 567 (IQR 319-668) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (868, 95% uncertainty interval 846-889), Iceland (860, 841-876), and Sweden (856, 818-878) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (109, 96-119), the Central African Republic (110, 88-138), and Somalia (113, 95-131) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fullman, Nancy Barber, Ryan M. Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Kaja M. Abd-Allah, Foad Abdulle, Abdishakur M. Abera, Semaw Ferede Aboyans, Victor Abu-Raddad, Laith J. Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adetokunboh, Olatunji Afshin, Ashkan Agrawal, Anurag Agrawal, Sutapa Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad Ahmadieh, Hamid Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Aichour, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aiyar, Sneha Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akseer, Nadia Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alasfoor, Deena Alene, Kefyalew Addis Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza Alkerwi, Ala'a Alla, François Allebeck, Peter Allen, Christine Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Bhatt, Samir Christensen, Hanne De Courten, Barbora Havmoeller, Rasmus Iburg, Kim Moesgaard Larsson, Anders Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor McGrath, John J. Mengistie, Mubarek Abera Nguyen, Minh Sobngwi, Eugene Truelsen, Thomas Wang, Yuan Pang |
spellingShingle |
Fullman, Nancy Barber, Ryan M. Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Kaja M. Abd-Allah, Foad Abdulle, Abdishakur M. Abera, Semaw Ferede Aboyans, Victor Abu-Raddad, Laith J. Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adetokunboh, Olatunji Afshin, Ashkan Agrawal, Anurag Agrawal, Sutapa Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad Ahmadieh, Hamid Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Aichour, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aiyar, Sneha Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akseer, Nadia Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alasfoor, Deena Alene, Kefyalew Addis Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza Alkerwi, Ala'a Alla, François Allebeck, Peter Allen, Christine Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Bhatt, Samir Christensen, Hanne De Courten, Barbora Havmoeller, Rasmus Iburg, Kim Moesgaard Larsson, Anders Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor McGrath, John J. Mengistie, Mubarek Abera Nguyen, Minh Sobngwi, Eugene Truelsen, Thomas Wang, Yuan Pang Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries:An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
author_facet |
Fullman, Nancy Barber, Ryan M. Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Kaja M. Abd-Allah, Foad Abdulle, Abdishakur M. Abera, Semaw Ferede Aboyans, Victor Abu-Raddad, Laith J. Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adetokunboh, Olatunji Afshin, Ashkan Agrawal, Anurag Agrawal, Sutapa Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad Ahmadieh, Hamid Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Aichour, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aiyar, Sneha Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akseer, Nadia Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alasfoor, Deena Alene, Kefyalew Addis Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza Alkerwi, Ala'a Alla, François Allebeck, Peter Allen, Christine Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Bhatt, Samir Christensen, Hanne De Courten, Barbora Havmoeller, Rasmus Iburg, Kim Moesgaard Larsson, Anders Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor McGrath, John J. Mengistie, Mubarek Abera Nguyen, Minh Sobngwi, Eugene Truelsen, Thomas Wang, Yuan Pang |
author_sort |
Fullman, Nancy |
title |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries:An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_short |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries:An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_full |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries:An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_fullStr |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries:An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries:An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_sort |
measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related sustainable development goals in 188 countries:an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2016 |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/measuring-progress-and-projecting-attainment-on-the-basis-of-past-trends-of-the-healthrelated-sustainable-development-goals-in-188-countries(c50fbddc-e82f-4e32-bc82-79a635057416).html https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X https://curis.ku.dk/ws/files/375836836/1_s2.0_S014067361732336X_main.pdf |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
Fullman , N , Barber , R M , Abajobir , A A , Abate , K H , Abbafati , C , Abbas , K M , Abd-Allah , F , Abdulle , A M , Abera , S F , Aboyans , V , Abu-Raddad , L J , Abu-Rmeileh , N M E , Adedeji , I A , Adetokunboh , O , Afshin , A , Agrawal , A , Agrawal , S , Kiadaliri , A A , Ahmadieh , H , Ahmed , M B , Aichour , A N , Aichour , I , Aichour , M T E , Aiyar , S , Akinyemi , R O , Akseer , N , Al-Aly , Z , Alam , K , Alam , N , Alasfoor , D , Alene , K A , Alizadeh-Navaei , R , Alkerwi , A , Alla , F , Allebeck , P , Allen , C , Al-Raddadi , R , Bhatt , S , Christensen , H , De Courten , B , Havmoeller , R , Iburg , K M , Larsson , A , Lazarus , J V , McGrath , J J , Mengistie , M A , Nguyen , M , Sobngwi , E , Truelsen , T , Wang , Y P & GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators 2017 , ' Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries : An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 ' , The Lancet , vol. 390 , no. 10100 , pp. 1423-1459 . https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X |
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https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X |
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The Lancet |
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390 |
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10100 |
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ftcopenhagenunip:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/c50fbddc-e82f-4e32-bc82-79a635057416 2024-06-09T07:47:15+00:00 Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries:An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 Fullman, Nancy Barber, Ryan M. Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Kaja M. Abd-Allah, Foad Abdulle, Abdishakur M. Abera, Semaw Ferede Aboyans, Victor Abu-Raddad, Laith J. Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adetokunboh, Olatunji Afshin, Ashkan Agrawal, Anurag Agrawal, Sutapa Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad Ahmadieh, Hamid Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Aichour, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aiyar, Sneha Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akseer, Nadia Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alasfoor, Deena Alene, Kefyalew Addis Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza Alkerwi, Ala'a Alla, François Allebeck, Peter Allen, Christine Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Bhatt, Samir Christensen, Hanne De Courten, Barbora Havmoeller, Rasmus Iburg, Kim Moesgaard Larsson, Anders Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor McGrath, John J. Mengistie, Mubarek Abera Nguyen, Minh Sobngwi, Eugene Truelsen, Thomas Wang, Yuan Pang 2017 application/pdf https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/measuring-progress-and-projecting-attainment-on-the-basis-of-past-trends-of-the-healthrelated-sustainable-development-goals-in-188-countries(c50fbddc-e82f-4e32-bc82-79a635057416).html https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X https://curis.ku.dk/ws/files/375836836/1_s2.0_S014067361732336X_main.pdf eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Fullman , N , Barber , R M , Abajobir , A A , Abate , K H , Abbafati , C , Abbas , K M , Abd-Allah , F , Abdulle , A M , Abera , S F , Aboyans , V , Abu-Raddad , L J , Abu-Rmeileh , N M E , Adedeji , I A , Adetokunboh , O , Afshin , A , Agrawal , A , Agrawal , S , Kiadaliri , A A , Ahmadieh , H , Ahmed , M B , Aichour , A N , Aichour , I , Aichour , M T E , Aiyar , S , Akinyemi , R O , Akseer , N , Al-Aly , Z , Alam , K , Alam , N , Alasfoor , D , Alene , K A , Alizadeh-Navaei , R , Alkerwi , A , Alla , F , Allebeck , P , Allen , C , Al-Raddadi , R , Bhatt , S , Christensen , H , De Courten , B , Havmoeller , R , Iburg , K M , Larsson , A , Lazarus , J V , McGrath , J J , Mengistie , M A , Nguyen , M , Sobngwi , E , Truelsen , T , Wang , Y P & GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators 2017 , ' Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries : An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 ' , The Lancet , vol. 390 , no. 10100 , pp. 1423-1459 . https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X article 2017 ftcopenhagenunip https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X 2024-05-16T11:29:31Z Background: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods: We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 25th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 975th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 567 (IQR 319-668) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (868, 95% uncertainty interval 846-889), Iceland (860, 841-876), and Sweden (856, 818-878) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (109, 96-119), the Central African Republic (110, 88-138), and Somalia (113, 95-131) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland University of Copenhagen: Research The Lancet 390 10100 1423 1459 |