Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region
Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary p...
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Online Access: | https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/terrestrial-ecosystem-model-performance-in-simulating-productivity-and-its-vulnerability-to-climate-change-in-the-northern-permafrost-region(b46efc5c-b43d-49ee-b1af-605d01e070e6).html https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01872578/document |
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ftcopenhagenunip:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/b46efc5c-b43d-49ee-b1af-605d01e070e6 2024-04-28T08:11:33+00:00 Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region Xia, Jianyang McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Koven, Charles MacDougall, Andrew Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J Huang, Kun Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Smith, Benjamin Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Shi, Zheng-Zheng Yan, Liming Liang, Junyi Jiang, Lifen Zhang, Qian Luo, Yiqi 2017 https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/terrestrial-ecosystem-model-performance-in-simulating-productivity-and-its-vulnerability-to-climate-change-in-the-northern-permafrost-region(b46efc5c-b43d-49ee-b1af-605d01e070e6).html https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01872578/document eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Xia , J , McGuire , A D , Lawrence , D , Burke , E , Chen , G , Chen , X , Delire , C , Koven , C , MacDougall , A , Peng , S , Rinke , A , Saito , K , Zhang , W , Alkama , R , Bohn , T J , Ciais , P , Decharme , B , Gouttevin , I , Hajima , T , Hayes , D J , Huang , K , Ji , D , Krinner , G , Lettenmaier , D P , Miller , P A , Moore , J C , Smith , B , Sueyoshi , T , Shi , Z-Z , Yan , L , Liang , J , Jiang , L , Zhang , Q & Luo , Y 2017 , ' Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region ' , Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences , vol. 122 , no. 2 , pp. 430-446 . https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 arctic carbon use efficiency climate warming CO elevation high latitudes model intercomparison article 2017 ftcopenhagenunip https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 2024-04-04T17:35:11Z Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m −2 yr −1 ), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m −2 yr −1 ) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m −2 yr −1 ), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPP max ). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (V cmax_25 ), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPP max as well as their sensitivity to climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost University of Copenhagen: Research Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 122 2 430 446 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Copenhagen: Research |
op_collection_id |
ftcopenhagenunip |
language |
English |
topic |
arctic carbon use efficiency climate warming CO elevation high latitudes model intercomparison |
spellingShingle |
arctic carbon use efficiency climate warming CO elevation high latitudes model intercomparison Xia, Jianyang McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Koven, Charles MacDougall, Andrew Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J Huang, Kun Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Smith, Benjamin Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Shi, Zheng-Zheng Yan, Liming Liang, Junyi Jiang, Lifen Zhang, Qian Luo, Yiqi Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region |
topic_facet |
arctic carbon use efficiency climate warming CO elevation high latitudes model intercomparison |
description |
Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m −2 yr −1 ), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m −2 yr −1 ) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m −2 yr −1 ), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPP max ). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (V cmax_25 ), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPP max as well as their sensitivity to climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Xia, Jianyang McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Koven, Charles MacDougall, Andrew Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J Huang, Kun Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Smith, Benjamin Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Shi, Zheng-Zheng Yan, Liming Liang, Junyi Jiang, Lifen Zhang, Qian Luo, Yiqi |
author_facet |
Xia, Jianyang McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Koven, Charles MacDougall, Andrew Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J Huang, Kun Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Smith, Benjamin Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Shi, Zheng-Zheng Yan, Liming Liang, Junyi Jiang, Lifen Zhang, Qian Luo, Yiqi |
author_sort |
Xia, Jianyang |
title |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region |
title_short |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region |
title_full |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region |
title_fullStr |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region |
title_full_unstemmed |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region |
title_sort |
terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/terrestrial-ecosystem-model-performance-in-simulating-productivity-and-its-vulnerability-to-climate-change-in-the-northern-permafrost-region(b46efc5c-b43d-49ee-b1af-605d01e070e6).html https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01872578/document |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_source |
Xia , J , McGuire , A D , Lawrence , D , Burke , E , Chen , G , Chen , X , Delire , C , Koven , C , MacDougall , A , Peng , S , Rinke , A , Saito , K , Zhang , W , Alkama , R , Bohn , T J , Ciais , P , Decharme , B , Gouttevin , I , Hajima , T , Hayes , D J , Huang , K , Ji , D , Krinner , G , Lettenmaier , D P , Miller , P A , Moore , J C , Smith , B , Sueyoshi , T , Shi , Z-Z , Yan , L , Liang , J , Jiang , L , Zhang , Q & Luo , Y 2017 , ' Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region ' , Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences , vol. 122 , no. 2 , pp. 430-446 . https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |
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122 |
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2 |
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430 |
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