A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands

Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from northern peatlands using...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:One Earth
Main Authors: Qiu, Chunjing, Ciais, Philippe, Zhu, Dan, Guenet, Bertrand, Chang, Jinfeng, Chaudhary, Nitin, Kleinen, Thomas, Müller, Jurek, Xi, Yi, Zhang, Wenxin, Ballantyne, Ashley, Brewer, Simon C., Brovkin, Victor, Charman, Dan J., Gustafson, Adrian, Gallego-Sala, Angela V., Gasser, Thomas, Holden, Joseph, Joos, Fortunat, Kwon, Min Jung, Lauerwald, Ronny, Miller, Paul A., Peng, Shushi, Page, Susan, Smith, Benjamin, Stocker, Benjamin D., Sannel, A. Britta K., Salmon, Elodie, Schurgers, Guy, Shurpali, Narasinha J., Wårlind, David
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2022
Subjects:
carbon dioxide
carbon-cycle feedback
land surface models
long-term climate change
methane
peatland
permafrost
Online Access:https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/a-strong-mitigation-scenario-maintains-climate-neutrality-of-northern-peatlands(8e2a76ce-80c9-4be5-9eab-f537c67b9b17).html
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008
https://curis.ku.dk/ws/files/297059435/1_s2.0_S2590332221007260_main.pdf
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Summary:Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO 2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO 2 source and a substantial increase in CH 4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21°C (range, 0.09–0.49°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.

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