Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point
We propose a conceptual model comprising a cascade of tipping points as a mechanism for past abrupt climate changes. In the model, changes in a control parameter, which could for instance be related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, induce sequential tipping of sea ice cover and the ocean...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
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ftcopenhagenunip:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/5d1c8949-610b-4cbf-8a37-05b4e7e37a71 2024-05-19T07:48:19+00:00 Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point Lohmann, Johannes Castellana, Daniele Ditlevsen, Peter D. Dijkstra, Henk A. 2021-07-28 application/pdf https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/abrupt-climate-change-as-a-ratedependent-cascading-tipping-point(5d1c8949-610b-4cbf-8a37-05b4e7e37a71).html https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021 https://curis.ku.dk/ws/files/275946539/esd_12_819_2021.pdf eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Lohmann , J , Castellana , D , Ditlevsen , P D & Dijkstra , H A 2021 , ' Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point ' , Earth System Dynamics , vol. 12 , no. 3 , pp. 819-835 . https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021 ATLANTIC-OCEAN CIRCULATION INSTABILITY SYSTEMS SHIFTS ONSET article 2021 ftcopenhagenunip https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021 2024-05-02T00:33:14Z We propose a conceptual model comprising a cascade of tipping points as a mechanism for past abrupt climate changes. In the model, changes in a control parameter, which could for instance be related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, induce sequential tipping of sea ice cover and the ocean's meridional overturning circulation. The ocean component, represented by the well-known Stommel box model, is shown to display so-called rate-induced tipping. Here, an abrupt resurgence of the overturning circulation is induced before a bifurcation point is reached due to the fast rate of change of the sea ice. Because of the multi-scale nature of the climate system, this type of tipping cascade may also be a risk concerning future global warming. The relatively short timescales involved make it challenging to detect these tipping points from observations. However, with our conceptual model we find that there can be a significant delay in the tipping because the system is attracted by the stable manifold of a saddle during the rate-induced transition before escaping towards the undesired state. This opens up the possibility for an early warning of the impending abrupt transition via detection of the changing linear stability in the vicinity of the saddle. To do so, we propose estimating the Jacobian from the noisy time series. This is shown to be a useful generic precursor to detect rate-induced tipping. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice University of Copenhagen: Research Earth System Dynamics 12 3 819 835 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Copenhagen: Research |
op_collection_id |
ftcopenhagenunip |
language |
English |
topic |
ATLANTIC-OCEAN CIRCULATION INSTABILITY SYSTEMS SHIFTS ONSET |
spellingShingle |
ATLANTIC-OCEAN CIRCULATION INSTABILITY SYSTEMS SHIFTS ONSET Lohmann, Johannes Castellana, Daniele Ditlevsen, Peter D. Dijkstra, Henk A. Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point |
topic_facet |
ATLANTIC-OCEAN CIRCULATION INSTABILITY SYSTEMS SHIFTS ONSET |
description |
We propose a conceptual model comprising a cascade of tipping points as a mechanism for past abrupt climate changes. In the model, changes in a control parameter, which could for instance be related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, induce sequential tipping of sea ice cover and the ocean's meridional overturning circulation. The ocean component, represented by the well-known Stommel box model, is shown to display so-called rate-induced tipping. Here, an abrupt resurgence of the overturning circulation is induced before a bifurcation point is reached due to the fast rate of change of the sea ice. Because of the multi-scale nature of the climate system, this type of tipping cascade may also be a risk concerning future global warming. The relatively short timescales involved make it challenging to detect these tipping points from observations. However, with our conceptual model we find that there can be a significant delay in the tipping because the system is attracted by the stable manifold of a saddle during the rate-induced transition before escaping towards the undesired state. This opens up the possibility for an early warning of the impending abrupt transition via detection of the changing linear stability in the vicinity of the saddle. To do so, we propose estimating the Jacobian from the noisy time series. This is shown to be a useful generic precursor to detect rate-induced tipping. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lohmann, Johannes Castellana, Daniele Ditlevsen, Peter D. Dijkstra, Henk A. |
author_facet |
Lohmann, Johannes Castellana, Daniele Ditlevsen, Peter D. Dijkstra, Henk A. |
author_sort |
Lohmann, Johannes |
title |
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point |
title_short |
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point |
title_full |
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point |
title_fullStr |
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point |
title_full_unstemmed |
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point |
title_sort |
abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/abrupt-climate-change-as-a-ratedependent-cascading-tipping-point(5d1c8949-610b-4cbf-8a37-05b4e7e37a71).html https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021 https://curis.ku.dk/ws/files/275946539/esd_12_819_2021.pdf |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Lohmann , J , Castellana , D , Ditlevsen , P D & Dijkstra , H A 2021 , ' Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point ' , Earth System Dynamics , vol. 12 , no. 3 , pp. 819-835 . https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
819 |
op_container_end_page |
835 |
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1799488875823890432 |