Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record

• Published in: Global and Planetary Change
• Main Authors: von der Heydt, Anna S., Ashwin, Peter, Camp, Charles D., Crucifix, Michel, Dijkstra, Henk A., Ditlevsen, Peter, Lenton, Timothy M.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2021
• Subjects: Climate variability; Palaeoclimate; Climate forcing; Climate response; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; MIDDLE PLEISTOCENE TRANSITION; EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION; NORTHEAST ATLANTIC-OCEAN; ICE-SHEET; CHANGEPOINT DETECTION; SOLAR VARIABILITY; RECHARGE PARADIGM; TIME-SERIES; EL-NINO; Ice Sheet; Northeast Atlantic
• Online Access: https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/quantification-and-interpretation-of-the-climate-variability-record(3f594d48-3921-4cde-a54b-becde5188ac7).html; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103399; https://curis.ku.dk/ws/files/258272372/1_s2.0_S0921818120302903_main.pdf

The spectral view of variability is a compelling and adaptable tool for understanding variability of the climate. In Mitchell (1976) seminal paper, it was used to express, on one graph with log scales, a very wide range of climate variations from millions of years to days. The spectral approach is particularly useful for suggesting causal links between forcing variability and climate response variability. However, a substantial degree of variability is intrinsic and the Earth system may respond to external forcing in a complex manner. There has been an enormous amount of work on understanding climate variability over the last decades. Hence in this paper, we address the question: Can we (after 40 years) update the Mitchell (1976) diagram and provide it with a better interpretation? By reviewing both the extended observations available for such a diagram and new methodological developments in the study of the interaction between internal and forced variability over a wide range of timescales, we give a positive answer to this question. In addition, we review alternative approaches to the spectral decomposition and pose some challenges for a more detailed quantification of climate variability.