Calculating effective growth rate from a random Leslie model: Application to incidental mortality analysis
Demographic models are commonly used to study cetacean population dynamics and are characterized by a wide range of age classes. The primary building blocks are age-specific survival or mortality and birth rates, which can be combined using a Leslie matrix protocol to provide estimates of maximum po...
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ftconicet:oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/2591 2023-10-09T21:55:17+02:00 Calculating effective growth rate from a random Leslie model: Application to incidental mortality analysis Caceres Garcia Faure, Manuel Osvaldo Cáceres Saez, Iris application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11336/2591 eng eng Elsevier Science info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://izt.ciens.ucv.ve/ecologia/Archivos/ECO_POB%202013/ECOPO3_2013/Caceres%20y%20Caceres-Saez%202013.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.12.021 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380013000045 http://hdl.handle.net/11336/2591 Caceres Garcia Faure, Manuel Osvaldo; Cáceres Saez, Iris; Calculating effective growth rate from a random Leslie model: Application to incidental mortality analysis; Elsevier Science; Ecological Modelling; 251; 21-2-2013; 312-322 0304-3800 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ Random Leslie Matrix Effective Growth Rate Uncertainty Cetacean Population Dynamics Harbor Porpoise https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion ftconicet https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.12.021 2023-09-24T20:15:22Z Demographic models are commonly used to study cetacean population dynamics and are characterized by a wide range of age classes. The primary building blocks are age-specific survival or mortality and birth rates, which can be combined using a Leslie matrix protocol to provide estimates of maximum possible rates of increase for population size. In this context, specific mortality data are valuable for modeling the viability of threatened species. Depletion of prey, pollution, and other anthropogenic disturbances are believed to have contributed to the decline of populations, but the evidence is less conclusive for these factors than for bycatch. In an attempt to estimate a population growth rate that incorporates uncertainties in vital parameters, we apply a random Leslie analysis to calculate effective growth rate for the time-dependent mean-value population. Here we provide the algorithm to implement it for a general 13×13 random survival model. An effective growth rate can be characterized by studying the time evolution of the mean-value population vector state (in an age-structured description). We show that the asymptotic behavior of the mean-value vector state, which characterizes the population growth rate when the model has random vital parameters, exhibits a value that is below previously expected potential estimations. We demonstrate the procedure using bibliographic revision data of the harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in Canadian waters, subjected to incidental mortality. Fil: Caceres Garcia Faure, Manuel Osvaldo. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Area de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina Fil: Cáceres Saez, Iris. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche; Argentina Article in Journal/Newspaper Phocoena phocoena CONICET Digital (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas) Argentino Argentina Faure ENVELOPE(-68.871,-68.871,-68.093,-68.093) Caceres ENVELOPE(-55.200,-55.200,-63.200,-63.200) Ecological Modelling 251 312 322 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
CONICET Digital (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas) |
op_collection_id |
ftconicet |
language |
English |
topic |
Random Leslie Matrix Effective Growth Rate Uncertainty Cetacean Population Dynamics Harbor Porpoise https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
spellingShingle |
Random Leslie Matrix Effective Growth Rate Uncertainty Cetacean Population Dynamics Harbor Porpoise https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 Caceres Garcia Faure, Manuel Osvaldo Cáceres Saez, Iris Calculating effective growth rate from a random Leslie model: Application to incidental mortality analysis |
topic_facet |
Random Leslie Matrix Effective Growth Rate Uncertainty Cetacean Population Dynamics Harbor Porpoise https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
description |
Demographic models are commonly used to study cetacean population dynamics and are characterized by a wide range of age classes. The primary building blocks are age-specific survival or mortality and birth rates, which can be combined using a Leslie matrix protocol to provide estimates of maximum possible rates of increase for population size. In this context, specific mortality data are valuable for modeling the viability of threatened species. Depletion of prey, pollution, and other anthropogenic disturbances are believed to have contributed to the decline of populations, but the evidence is less conclusive for these factors than for bycatch. In an attempt to estimate a population growth rate that incorporates uncertainties in vital parameters, we apply a random Leslie analysis to calculate effective growth rate for the time-dependent mean-value population. Here we provide the algorithm to implement it for a general 13×13 random survival model. An effective growth rate can be characterized by studying the time evolution of the mean-value population vector state (in an age-structured description). We show that the asymptotic behavior of the mean-value vector state, which characterizes the population growth rate when the model has random vital parameters, exhibits a value that is below previously expected potential estimations. We demonstrate the procedure using bibliographic revision data of the harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in Canadian waters, subjected to incidental mortality. Fil: Caceres Garcia Faure, Manuel Osvaldo. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Area de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina Fil: Cáceres Saez, Iris. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche; Argentina |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Caceres Garcia Faure, Manuel Osvaldo Cáceres Saez, Iris |
author_facet |
Caceres Garcia Faure, Manuel Osvaldo Cáceres Saez, Iris |
author_sort |
Caceres Garcia Faure, Manuel Osvaldo |
title |
Calculating effective growth rate from a random Leslie model: Application to incidental mortality analysis |
title_short |
Calculating effective growth rate from a random Leslie model: Application to incidental mortality analysis |
title_full |
Calculating effective growth rate from a random Leslie model: Application to incidental mortality analysis |
title_fullStr |
Calculating effective growth rate from a random Leslie model: Application to incidental mortality analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Calculating effective growth rate from a random Leslie model: Application to incidental mortality analysis |
title_sort |
calculating effective growth rate from a random leslie model: application to incidental mortality analysis |
publisher |
Elsevier Science |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/2591 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-68.871,-68.871,-68.093,-68.093) ENVELOPE(-55.200,-55.200,-63.200,-63.200) |
geographic |
Argentino Argentina Faure Caceres |
geographic_facet |
Argentino Argentina Faure Caceres |
genre |
Phocoena phocoena |
genre_facet |
Phocoena phocoena |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://izt.ciens.ucv.ve/ecologia/Archivos/ECO_POB%202013/ECOPO3_2013/Caceres%20y%20Caceres-Saez%202013.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.12.021 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380013000045 http://hdl.handle.net/11336/2591 Caceres Garcia Faure, Manuel Osvaldo; Cáceres Saez, Iris; Calculating effective growth rate from a random Leslie model: Application to incidental mortality analysis; Elsevier Science; Ecological Modelling; 251; 21-2-2013; 312-322 0304-3800 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.12.021 |
container_title |
Ecological Modelling |
container_volume |
251 |
container_start_page |
312 |
op_container_end_page |
322 |
_version_ |
1779319151274229760 |