Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° s)

In this work, a statistical permafrost distribution model for coarseblocky deposits in the Dry Andes of Argentina (28-33°S) is presented. The empiric mathematical formulation was based on a logistic regression. The final model is a combination of two independent occurrence probability models: a) a m...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica
Main Authors: Tapia Baldis, Carla Cintia, Trombotto, Dario Tomas
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Universidad de La Rioja
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/11336/200476
id ftconicet:oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/200476
record_format openpolar
spelling ftconicet:oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/200476 2023-10-09T21:55:06+02:00 Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° s) Modelo de permafrost en depósitos detríticos gruesos para los Andes secos de Argentina (28-33° s) Tapia Baldis, Carla Cintia Trombotto, Dario Tomas application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11336/200476 eng eng Universidad de La Rioja info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://publicaciones.unirioja.es/ojs/index.php/cig/article/view/3802 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.18172/cig.3802 http://hdl.handle.net/11336/200476 Tapia Baldis, Carla Cintia; Trombotto, Dario Tomas; Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° s) Universidad de La Rioja; Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica; 46; 1; 12-2018; 33-58 0211-6820 1697-9540 CONICET Digital CONICET info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ ARGENTINA CENTRAL ANDES PROBABILITY MODEL MOUNTAIN PERMAFROST COARSE-DEBRIS SURFACES https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion ftconicet https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.3802 2023-09-24T19:38:13Z In this work, a statistical permafrost distribution model for coarseblocky deposits in the Dry Andes of Argentina (28-33°S) is presented. The empiric mathematical formulation was based on a logistic regression. The final model is a combination of two independent occurrence probability models: a) a mean annual air temperature-terrain ruggedness model and, b) a mean annual air temperaturepotential incoming solar radiation model. For all cases, calibration was made according the complete geomorphological characterization of a periglacial basin with 250 km2. Lately, the results of probabilistic model were extrapolated to the whole study area in the Dry Andes and compared with the Argentine rock glacier inventory data base. High permafrost likelihood, in coarse debris, is expected above 4200 and 5700 m a.s.l., from south to north in the study area and covers a surface of approximately 1200 km2. Medium permafrost likelihood is expected above 3400 and 4200 m a.s.l. with a surface of 6178 km2 while low permafrost likelihood, occurs between 3000 and 3400 m a.s.l. with an area of 11.060 km2. These findings indicate that permafrost may occur in several types of coarseblocky deposits in the Dry Andes, not only restricted to rock glaciers. Thermal properties of the ground in coarse-blocky deposits allow permafrost permanence, even under unfavourable climatic conditions. The performance of the permafrost model was also tested, considering the transition from cold paleoclimate Tardiglacial to present climatic conditions. During the warming, likely permafrost surface reduced from 56 to 13%. In the same way, rock glaciers with high and medium permafrost likelihood decrease from 62 to 30%, respectively while, rock glaciers with low likelihood and no permafrost category, increased 75% and 474%, respectively. Moreover, we identified some sites in which permafrost degradation is arguably expected. About that, 0.9% of the rock glaciers in the study area display possible permafrost degradation and 33% of them, likely permafrost ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost CONICET Digital (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas) Argentina Argentine Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica 46 1 33 58
institution Open Polar
collection CONICET Digital (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas)
op_collection_id ftconicet
language English
topic ARGENTINA
CENTRAL ANDES
PROBABILITY MODEL
MOUNTAIN PERMAFROST
COARSE-DEBRIS SURFACES
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
spellingShingle ARGENTINA
CENTRAL ANDES
PROBABILITY MODEL
MOUNTAIN PERMAFROST
COARSE-DEBRIS SURFACES
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
Tapia Baldis, Carla Cintia
Trombotto, Dario Tomas
Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° s)
topic_facet ARGENTINA
CENTRAL ANDES
PROBABILITY MODEL
MOUNTAIN PERMAFROST
COARSE-DEBRIS SURFACES
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
description In this work, a statistical permafrost distribution model for coarseblocky deposits in the Dry Andes of Argentina (28-33°S) is presented. The empiric mathematical formulation was based on a logistic regression. The final model is a combination of two independent occurrence probability models: a) a mean annual air temperature-terrain ruggedness model and, b) a mean annual air temperaturepotential incoming solar radiation model. For all cases, calibration was made according the complete geomorphological characterization of a periglacial basin with 250 km2. Lately, the results of probabilistic model were extrapolated to the whole study area in the Dry Andes and compared with the Argentine rock glacier inventory data base. High permafrost likelihood, in coarse debris, is expected above 4200 and 5700 m a.s.l., from south to north in the study area and covers a surface of approximately 1200 km2. Medium permafrost likelihood is expected above 3400 and 4200 m a.s.l. with a surface of 6178 km2 while low permafrost likelihood, occurs between 3000 and 3400 m a.s.l. with an area of 11.060 km2. These findings indicate that permafrost may occur in several types of coarseblocky deposits in the Dry Andes, not only restricted to rock glaciers. Thermal properties of the ground in coarse-blocky deposits allow permafrost permanence, even under unfavourable climatic conditions. The performance of the permafrost model was also tested, considering the transition from cold paleoclimate Tardiglacial to present climatic conditions. During the warming, likely permafrost surface reduced from 56 to 13%. In the same way, rock glaciers with high and medium permafrost likelihood decrease from 62 to 30%, respectively while, rock glaciers with low likelihood and no permafrost category, increased 75% and 474%, respectively. Moreover, we identified some sites in which permafrost degradation is arguably expected. About that, 0.9% of the rock glaciers in the study area display possible permafrost degradation and 33% of them, likely permafrost ...
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Tapia Baldis, Carla Cintia
Trombotto, Dario Tomas
author_facet Tapia Baldis, Carla Cintia
Trombotto, Dario Tomas
author_sort Tapia Baldis, Carla Cintia
title Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° s)
title_short Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° s)
title_full Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° s)
title_fullStr Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° s)
title_full_unstemmed Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° s)
title_sort permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the dry andes, argentina (28°-33° s)
publisher Universidad de La Rioja
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/200476
geographic Argentina
Argentine
geographic_facet Argentina
Argentine
genre permafrost
genre_facet permafrost
op_relation info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://publicaciones.unirioja.es/ojs/index.php/cig/article/view/3802
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.18172/cig.3802
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/200476
Tapia Baldis, Carla Cintia; Trombotto, Dario Tomas; Permafrost model in coarse-blocky deposits for the Dry Andes, Argentina (28°-33° s)
Universidad de La Rioja; Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica; 46; 1; 12-2018; 33-58
0211-6820
1697-9540
CONICET Digital
CONICET
op_rights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.3802
container_title Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica
container_volume 46
container_issue 1
container_start_page 33
op_container_end_page 58
_version_ 1779318900088897536