Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble
We assess the likely changes in climate extremes under enhanced greenhouse gases over the southern extratropics, with emphasis in southern South America and sub-Antarctic seas, through the analysis of extreme indices measured from models participating in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We discuss ho...
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ftconicet:oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17242 2023-10-09T21:47:14+02:00 Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble Menendez, Claudio Guillermo Carril, Andrea Fabiana application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17242 eng eng Springer info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10584-009-9735-7 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-009-9735-7 http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17242 Menendez, Claudio Guillermo; Carril, Andrea Fabiana; Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble; Springer; Climatic Change; 98; 3; 2-2010; 359-377 0165-0009 1573-1480 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ Extremes Sam Climatic Change https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion ftconicet https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9735-7 2023-09-24T18:50:11Z We assess the likely changes in climate extremes under enhanced greenhouse gases over the southern extratropics, with emphasis in southern South America and sub-Antarctic seas, through the analysis of extreme indices measured from models participating in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We discuss how the anthropogenic climate change under A1B scenario influences both the patterns of mean change of extreme indices and the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme indices. The likelihood of occurrence of a year with a large number of days with “warm” minimum temperatures is estimated to increase by a factor of 4 by the end of this century over most of the southern extratropics. By that time, the risk of “severe” precipitation intensity is projected to rise in most areas with the exception of the subtropical anticyclones, which experience particularly strong drying. Over the Southern Ocean this likelihood has increased to over 60%. Corresponding estimates of the changing likelihood for very long dry spells show a banded structure with positive ratios to the north of about 50◦ S and negative ratios in the sub Antarctic seas. In southern South America this risk about doubled between present and future climates. Then, we explore if the Southern Annular Mode influences the occurrence of severe extreme indices during the period 2070–2099. Its positive phase inhibits the extremely warm minimum temperatures in the Southern Ocean, with the exception of the eastern Bellingshausen Sea, and favors severe frost days to the north of the Ross Sea. Temperature indices show very little change induced by the SAM to the north of 50◦ S. Severe dry spells are inhibited during the positive phase along the sub Antarctic seas, while the mid-latitudes, including most of Patagonia, show the opposite behaviour. The Southern Ocean reveals a non-uniform distribution with both increases and decreases in the occurrence of heavier precipitation during positive SAM. Fil: Menendez, Claudio Guillermo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Bellingshausen Sea Ross Sea Southern Ocean CONICET Digital (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas) Antarctic Southern Ocean Ross Sea Patagonia Bellingshausen Sea Climatic Change 98 3-4 359 377 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
CONICET Digital (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas) |
op_collection_id |
ftconicet |
language |
English |
topic |
Extremes Sam Climatic Change https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
spellingShingle |
Extremes Sam Climatic Change https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 Menendez, Claudio Guillermo Carril, Andrea Fabiana Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble |
topic_facet |
Extremes Sam Climatic Change https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
description |
We assess the likely changes in climate extremes under enhanced greenhouse gases over the southern extratropics, with emphasis in southern South America and sub-Antarctic seas, through the analysis of extreme indices measured from models participating in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We discuss how the anthropogenic climate change under A1B scenario influences both the patterns of mean change of extreme indices and the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme indices. The likelihood of occurrence of a year with a large number of days with “warm” minimum temperatures is estimated to increase by a factor of 4 by the end of this century over most of the southern extratropics. By that time, the risk of “severe” precipitation intensity is projected to rise in most areas with the exception of the subtropical anticyclones, which experience particularly strong drying. Over the Southern Ocean this likelihood has increased to over 60%. Corresponding estimates of the changing likelihood for very long dry spells show a banded structure with positive ratios to the north of about 50◦ S and negative ratios in the sub Antarctic seas. In southern South America this risk about doubled between present and future climates. Then, we explore if the Southern Annular Mode influences the occurrence of severe extreme indices during the period 2070–2099. Its positive phase inhibits the extremely warm minimum temperatures in the Southern Ocean, with the exception of the eastern Bellingshausen Sea, and favors severe frost days to the north of the Ross Sea. Temperature indices show very little change induced by the SAM to the north of 50◦ S. Severe dry spells are inhibited during the positive phase along the sub Antarctic seas, while the mid-latitudes, including most of Patagonia, show the opposite behaviour. The Southern Ocean reveals a non-uniform distribution with both increases and decreases in the occurrence of heavier precipitation during positive SAM. Fil: Menendez, Claudio Guillermo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Menendez, Claudio Guillermo Carril, Andrea Fabiana |
author_facet |
Menendez, Claudio Guillermo Carril, Andrea Fabiana |
author_sort |
Menendez, Claudio Guillermo |
title |
Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble |
title_short |
Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble |
title_full |
Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble |
title_sort |
potential changes in extremes and links with the southern annular mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble |
publisher |
Springer |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17242 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean Ross Sea Patagonia Bellingshausen Sea |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean Ross Sea Patagonia Bellingshausen Sea |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Bellingshausen Sea Ross Sea Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Bellingshausen Sea Ross Sea Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10584-009-9735-7 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-009-9735-7 http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17242 Menendez, Claudio Guillermo; Carril, Andrea Fabiana; Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble; Springer; Climatic Change; 98; 3; 2-2010; 359-377 0165-0009 1573-1480 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9735-7 |
container_title |
Climatic Change |
container_volume |
98 |
container_issue |
3-4 |
container_start_page |
359 |
op_container_end_page |
377 |
_version_ |
1779310208035586048 |