Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate
Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate re...
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ftconicet:oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/117172 2023-10-09T21:45:19+02:00 Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate Jones, Julie Gille, Sarah Goose, Hugues J. Abram, Nerillie J. Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo Charman, Dan J. Clem, Kyle R. Crosta Xavier de Lavergne, Casimir Eisenman, Ian England, Matthew H. Fogt, Ryan L. Frankcombe, Leela M. Marshall, Gareth J. Masson Delmotte, Valérie Morrison, Adele K. Orsi, Anaïs J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Renwick, James A. Schneider, David P. Simpkins, Graham R. Steig, Eric J. Steni, Barbara Swingedow, Didier Vance, Tessa R. application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11336/117172 eng eng Nature Publishing Group info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/NCLIMATE3103 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3103 http://hdl.handle.net/11336/117172 Jones, Julie; Gille, Sarah; Goose, Hugues J.; Abram, Nerillie J.; Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo; et al.; Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Climate Change; 6; 10; 10-2016; 917-926 1758-678X 1758-6798 CONICET Digital CONICET info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ ANTARCTICA CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE VARIABILITY https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion ftconicet https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3103 2023-09-24T19:59:57Z Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response. Fil: Jones, Julie. University of Sheffield; Reino Unido Fil: Gille, Sarah. University of California at San Diego. Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Estados Unidos Fil: Goose, Hugues J. Université Catholique de Louvain; Bélgica Fil: Abram, Nerillie J. The Australian National University; Australia Fil: Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Buenos Aires. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo de las Ingenierías; Argentina Fil: Charman, Dan J. University of Exeter; Reino Unido Fil: Clem, Kyle R. Victoria University of Wellington; Nueva Zelanda Fil: Crosta Xavier. Universite de Bordeaux; Francia Fil: de Lavergne, Casimir. Université Pierre et Marie Curie; Francia Fil: Eisenman, Ian. University of California at San Diego. Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Estados Unidos Fil: England, Matthew H. University of New South Wales; Australia Fil: Fogt, Ryan L. ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice CONICET Digital (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas) Antarctic Argentina Sheffield Pablo ENVELOPE(-63.717,-63.717,-64.283,-64.283) Scripps ENVELOPE(-63.783,-63.783,-69.150,-69.150) Kyle ENVELOPE(168.583,168.583,-71.950,-71.950) Nature Climate Change 6 10 917 926 |
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Open Polar |
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CONICET Digital (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas) |
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language |
English |
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ANTARCTICA CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE VARIABILITY https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
spellingShingle |
ANTARCTICA CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE VARIABILITY https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 Jones, Julie Gille, Sarah Goose, Hugues J. Abram, Nerillie J. Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo Charman, Dan J. Clem, Kyle R. Crosta Xavier de Lavergne, Casimir Eisenman, Ian England, Matthew H. Fogt, Ryan L. Frankcombe, Leela M. Marshall, Gareth J. Masson Delmotte, Valérie Morrison, Adele K. Orsi, Anaïs J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Renwick, James A. Schneider, David P. Simpkins, Graham R. Steig, Eric J. Steni, Barbara Swingedow, Didier Vance, Tessa R. Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
topic_facet |
ANTARCTICA CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE VARIABILITY https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
description |
Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response. Fil: Jones, Julie. University of Sheffield; Reino Unido Fil: Gille, Sarah. University of California at San Diego. Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Estados Unidos Fil: Goose, Hugues J. Université Catholique de Louvain; Bélgica Fil: Abram, Nerillie J. The Australian National University; Australia Fil: Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Buenos Aires. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo de las Ingenierías; Argentina Fil: Charman, Dan J. University of Exeter; Reino Unido Fil: Clem, Kyle R. Victoria University of Wellington; Nueva Zelanda Fil: Crosta Xavier. Universite de Bordeaux; Francia Fil: de Lavergne, Casimir. Université Pierre et Marie Curie; Francia Fil: Eisenman, Ian. University of California at San Diego. Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Estados Unidos Fil: England, Matthew H. University of New South Wales; Australia Fil: Fogt, Ryan L. ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jones, Julie Gille, Sarah Goose, Hugues J. Abram, Nerillie J. Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo Charman, Dan J. Clem, Kyle R. Crosta Xavier de Lavergne, Casimir Eisenman, Ian England, Matthew H. Fogt, Ryan L. Frankcombe, Leela M. Marshall, Gareth J. Masson Delmotte, Valérie Morrison, Adele K. Orsi, Anaïs J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Renwick, James A. Schneider, David P. Simpkins, Graham R. Steig, Eric J. Steni, Barbara Swingedow, Didier Vance, Tessa R. |
author_facet |
Jones, Julie Gille, Sarah Goose, Hugues J. Abram, Nerillie J. Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo Charman, Dan J. Clem, Kyle R. Crosta Xavier de Lavergne, Casimir Eisenman, Ian England, Matthew H. Fogt, Ryan L. Frankcombe, Leela M. Marshall, Gareth J. Masson Delmotte, Valérie Morrison, Adele K. Orsi, Anaïs J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Renwick, James A. Schneider, David P. Simpkins, Graham R. Steig, Eric J. Steni, Barbara Swingedow, Didier Vance, Tessa R. |
author_sort |
Jones, Julie |
title |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_short |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_full |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_fullStr |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_sort |
assessing recent trends in high-latitude southern hemisphere surface climate |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/117172 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-63.717,-63.717,-64.283,-64.283) ENVELOPE(-63.783,-63.783,-69.150,-69.150) ENVELOPE(168.583,168.583,-71.950,-71.950) |
geographic |
Antarctic Argentina Sheffield Pablo Scripps Kyle |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Argentina Sheffield Pablo Scripps Kyle |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/NCLIMATE3103 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3103 http://hdl.handle.net/11336/117172 Jones, Julie; Gille, Sarah; Goose, Hugues J.; Abram, Nerillie J.; Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo; et al.; Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Climate Change; 6; 10; 10-2016; 917-926 1758-678X 1758-6798 CONICET Digital CONICET |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3103 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
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6 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
917 |
op_container_end_page |
926 |
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1779317649127243776 |