Simulation capability of tropical and extratropical seasonal climate anomalies over South America
An ensemble of 20 extended integrations of the atmospheric model CSIRO Mark 2, forced with the sea surface temperature observed during the 1986–1998 period, was performed to analyze the simulation capability of seasonal climate anomalies over South America and adjacent oceanic areas. Variations of t...
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ftconicet:oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/104926 2023-10-09T21:46:02+02:00 Simulation capability of tropical and extratropical seasonal climate anomalies over South America Labraga, Juan Carlos application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11336/104926 eng eng Springer info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-005-0039-y info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-005-0039-y http://hdl.handle.net/11336/104926 Labraga, Juan Carlos; Simulation capability of tropical and extratropical seasonal climate anomalies over South America; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 25; 4; 26-7-2005; 427-445 0930-7575 1432-0894 CONICET Digital CONICET info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ RAINFALL RATE CLIMATE ANOMALY SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE SOUTH ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE ZONE https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion ftconicet https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0039-y 2023-09-24T19:28:49Z An ensemble of 20 extended integrations of the atmospheric model CSIRO Mark 2, forced with the sea surface temperature observed during the 1986–1998 period, was performed to analyze the simulation capability of seasonal climate anomalies over South America and adjacent oceanic areas. Variations of the simulation skill within the region and during the experimental period were assessed through standard statistical measures and compared to the signal-to-noise ratio distribution. Before the skill assessment, model systematic errors were thoroughly evaluated. The results confirm that the simulation skill is very high in tropical oceanic areas, and decreases rapidly towards middle and high latitudes. Model performance at mid and high atmospheric levels is substantially better than at low levels. Relatively high simulation capability was found over the Pacific Ocean between the equator and the Antarctic coast, which is coherent with the presence of three relative maximums in the signal-to-noise ratio, similar to the increase of the forced variance found by several authors over much of the Pacific–North American pattern region. Rainfall rate and second-order moments associated with the cyclonic activity and the meridional eddy fluxes of heat and humidity are better simulated in a narrow strip parallel to the SPCZ and extending further southeast into mid latitudes of the continent. The simulation skill noticeably improves during the warm and cold ENSO phases, in correspondence with an intensification of the signal-to-noise ratio, and useful rainfall anomaly simulations can be obtained over the Amazonas and Rio de la Plata river basins. Fil: Labraga, Juan Carlos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico; Argentina Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic CONICET Digital (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas) Antarctic The Antarctic Pacific Argentina Climate Dynamics 25 4 427 445 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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CONICET Digital (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas) |
op_collection_id |
ftconicet |
language |
English |
topic |
RAINFALL RATE CLIMATE ANOMALY SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE SOUTH ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE ZONE https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
spellingShingle |
RAINFALL RATE CLIMATE ANOMALY SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE SOUTH ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE ZONE https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 Labraga, Juan Carlos Simulation capability of tropical and extratropical seasonal climate anomalies over South America |
topic_facet |
RAINFALL RATE CLIMATE ANOMALY SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE SOUTH ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE ZONE https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
description |
An ensemble of 20 extended integrations of the atmospheric model CSIRO Mark 2, forced with the sea surface temperature observed during the 1986–1998 period, was performed to analyze the simulation capability of seasonal climate anomalies over South America and adjacent oceanic areas. Variations of the simulation skill within the region and during the experimental period were assessed through standard statistical measures and compared to the signal-to-noise ratio distribution. Before the skill assessment, model systematic errors were thoroughly evaluated. The results confirm that the simulation skill is very high in tropical oceanic areas, and decreases rapidly towards middle and high latitudes. Model performance at mid and high atmospheric levels is substantially better than at low levels. Relatively high simulation capability was found over the Pacific Ocean between the equator and the Antarctic coast, which is coherent with the presence of three relative maximums in the signal-to-noise ratio, similar to the increase of the forced variance found by several authors over much of the Pacific–North American pattern region. Rainfall rate and second-order moments associated with the cyclonic activity and the meridional eddy fluxes of heat and humidity are better simulated in a narrow strip parallel to the SPCZ and extending further southeast into mid latitudes of the continent. The simulation skill noticeably improves during the warm and cold ENSO phases, in correspondence with an intensification of the signal-to-noise ratio, and useful rainfall anomaly simulations can be obtained over the Amazonas and Rio de la Plata river basins. Fil: Labraga, Juan Carlos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico; Argentina |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Labraga, Juan Carlos |
author_facet |
Labraga, Juan Carlos |
author_sort |
Labraga, Juan Carlos |
title |
Simulation capability of tropical and extratropical seasonal climate anomalies over South America |
title_short |
Simulation capability of tropical and extratropical seasonal climate anomalies over South America |
title_full |
Simulation capability of tropical and extratropical seasonal climate anomalies over South America |
title_fullStr |
Simulation capability of tropical and extratropical seasonal climate anomalies over South America |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulation capability of tropical and extratropical seasonal climate anomalies over South America |
title_sort |
simulation capability of tropical and extratropical seasonal climate anomalies over south america |
publisher |
Springer |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/104926 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Pacific Argentina |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Pacific Argentina |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-005-0039-y info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-005-0039-y http://hdl.handle.net/11336/104926 Labraga, Juan Carlos; Simulation capability of tropical and extratropical seasonal climate anomalies over South America; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 25; 4; 26-7-2005; 427-445 0930-7575 1432-0894 CONICET Digital CONICET |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0039-y |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
427 |
op_container_end_page |
445 |
_version_ |
1779321687498555392 |