Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast
The ocean and atmosphere in the North Atlantic are coupled through a feedback mechanism that excites a dipole pattern in vertical wind shear (VWS), a metric that strongly controls Atlantic hurricanes. In particular, when tropical VWS is under the weakening phase and thus favorable for increased hurr...
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ftcolumbiauniv:oai:academiccommons.columbia.edu:10.7916/d8-d1zz-g318 2023-05-15T17:32:49+02:00 Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast Ting, Mingfang Kossin, James P. Camargo, Suzana J. Li, Cuihua 2019 https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-d1zz-g318 English eng https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-d1zz-g318 Climatology Hurricanes Climatic changes Greenhouse gases--Environmental aspects Articles 2019 ftcolumbiauniv https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-d1zz-g318 2020-01-11T23:20:04Z The ocean and atmosphere in the North Atlantic are coupled through a feedback mechanism that excites a dipole pattern in vertical wind shear (VWS), a metric that strongly controls Atlantic hurricanes. In particular, when tropical VWS is under the weakening phase and thus favorable for increased hurricane activity in the Main Development Region (MDR), a protective barrier of high VWS inhibits hurricane intensification along the U.S. East Coast. Here we show that this pattern is driven mostly by natural decadal variability, but that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing erodes the pattern and degrades the natural barrier along the U.S. coast. Twenty-first century climate model projections show that the increased VWS along the U.S. East Coast during decadal periods of enhanced hurricane activity is substantially reduced by GHG forcing, which allows hurricanes approaching the U.S. coast to intensify more rapidly. The erosion of this natural intensification barrier is especially large following the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (rcp8.5) emission scenario. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Columbia University: Academic Commons |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Columbia University: Academic Commons |
op_collection_id |
ftcolumbiauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Climatology Hurricanes Climatic changes Greenhouse gases--Environmental aspects |
spellingShingle |
Climatology Hurricanes Climatic changes Greenhouse gases--Environmental aspects Ting, Mingfang Kossin, James P. Camargo, Suzana J. Li, Cuihua Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast |
topic_facet |
Climatology Hurricanes Climatic changes Greenhouse gases--Environmental aspects |
description |
The ocean and atmosphere in the North Atlantic are coupled through a feedback mechanism that excites a dipole pattern in vertical wind shear (VWS), a metric that strongly controls Atlantic hurricanes. In particular, when tropical VWS is under the weakening phase and thus favorable for increased hurricane activity in the Main Development Region (MDR), a protective barrier of high VWS inhibits hurricane intensification along the U.S. East Coast. Here we show that this pattern is driven mostly by natural decadal variability, but that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing erodes the pattern and degrades the natural barrier along the U.S. coast. Twenty-first century climate model projections show that the increased VWS along the U.S. East Coast during decadal periods of enhanced hurricane activity is substantially reduced by GHG forcing, which allows hurricanes approaching the U.S. coast to intensify more rapidly. The erosion of this natural intensification barrier is especially large following the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (rcp8.5) emission scenario. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ting, Mingfang Kossin, James P. Camargo, Suzana J. Li, Cuihua |
author_facet |
Ting, Mingfang Kossin, James P. Camargo, Suzana J. Li, Cuihua |
author_sort |
Ting, Mingfang |
title |
Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast |
title_short |
Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast |
title_full |
Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast |
title_fullStr |
Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast |
title_full_unstemmed |
Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast |
title_sort |
past and future hurricane intensity change along the u.s. east coast |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-d1zz-g318 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-d1zz-g318 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-d1zz-g318 |
_version_ |
1766131099206942720 |