Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea sur...
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ftcolumbiauniv:oai:academiccommons.columbia.edu:10.7916/D8QC03DZ 2023-05-15T17:34:47+02:00 Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belen Mohino, Elsa Mechoso, Carlos R. Caminaded, Cyril Biasutti, Michela Gaetani, Marco Garcia-Serranog, J. Vizyh, Edward K. Cook, Kerry Xuec, Yongkang Poloi, Irene Losada, Teresa Druyank, Leonard Fontaine, Bernard Bader, Juergen Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. Goddard, Lisa M. Janicot, Serge Arribas, Alberto Lau, William Colman, Andrew Vellinga, M. Rowell, David P. Kucharskis, Fred Voldoire, Aurore 2015 https://doi.org/10.7916/D8QC03DZ English eng American Meteorological Society https://doi.org/10.7916/D8QC03DZ Long-range weather forecasting Ocean temperature Climatic changes Droughts Atmosphere Articles 2015 ftcolumbiauniv https://doi.org/10.7916/D8QC03DZ 2019-04-04T08:14:19Z The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface–atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Columbia University: Academic Commons Pacific Indian |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Columbia University: Academic Commons |
op_collection_id |
ftcolumbiauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Long-range weather forecasting Ocean temperature Climatic changes Droughts Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
Long-range weather forecasting Ocean temperature Climatic changes Droughts Atmosphere Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belen Mohino, Elsa Mechoso, Carlos R. Caminaded, Cyril Biasutti, Michela Gaetani, Marco Garcia-Serranog, J. Vizyh, Edward K. Cook, Kerry Xuec, Yongkang Poloi, Irene Losada, Teresa Druyank, Leonard Fontaine, Bernard Bader, Juergen Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. Goddard, Lisa M. Janicot, Serge Arribas, Alberto Lau, William Colman, Andrew Vellinga, M. Rowell, David P. Kucharskis, Fred Voldoire, Aurore Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies |
topic_facet |
Long-range weather forecasting Ocean temperature Climatic changes Droughts Atmosphere |
description |
The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface–atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belen Mohino, Elsa Mechoso, Carlos R. Caminaded, Cyril Biasutti, Michela Gaetani, Marco Garcia-Serranog, J. Vizyh, Edward K. Cook, Kerry Xuec, Yongkang Poloi, Irene Losada, Teresa Druyank, Leonard Fontaine, Bernard Bader, Juergen Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. Goddard, Lisa M. Janicot, Serge Arribas, Alberto Lau, William Colman, Andrew Vellinga, M. Rowell, David P. Kucharskis, Fred Voldoire, Aurore |
author_facet |
Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belen Mohino, Elsa Mechoso, Carlos R. Caminaded, Cyril Biasutti, Michela Gaetani, Marco Garcia-Serranog, J. Vizyh, Edward K. Cook, Kerry Xuec, Yongkang Poloi, Irene Losada, Teresa Druyank, Leonard Fontaine, Bernard Bader, Juergen Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. Goddard, Lisa M. Janicot, Serge Arribas, Alberto Lau, William Colman, Andrew Vellinga, M. Rowell, David P. Kucharskis, Fred Voldoire, Aurore |
author_sort |
Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belen |
title |
Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies |
title_short |
Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies |
title_full |
Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies |
title_fullStr |
Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies |
title_full_unstemmed |
Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies |
title_sort |
variability and predictability of west african droughts: a review on the role of sea surface temperature anomalies |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.7916/D8QC03DZ |
geographic |
Pacific Indian |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Indian |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.7916/D8QC03DZ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7916/D8QC03DZ |
_version_ |
1766133714950029312 |