Can Natural Variability Explain Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends? New Modeling Evidence from CMIP5
The recent observed positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent are at odds with the expectation of melting sea ice in a warming world. More problematic yet, climate models indicate that sea ice should decrease around Antarctica in response to both increasing greenhouse gases and stratospheric...
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ftcolumbiauniv:oai:academiccommons.columbia.edu:10.7916/D8GF14PV 2023-05-15T13:50:01+02:00 Can Natural Variability Explain Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends? New Modeling Evidence from CMIP5 Polvani, Lorenzo M. Smith, Karen L. 2013 https://doi.org/10.7916/D8GF14PV English eng https://doi.org/10.7916/D8GF14PV Atmosphere Oceanography Climatic changes Articles 2013 ftcolumbiauniv https://doi.org/10.7916/D8GF14PV 2019-04-04T08:10:15Z The recent observed positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent are at odds with the expectation of melting sea ice in a warming world. More problematic yet, climate models indicate that sea ice should decrease around Antarctica in response to both increasing greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion. The resolution of this puzzle, we suggest, may lie in the large natural variability of the coupled atmosphere‒ocean‒sea‒ice system. Contrasting forced and control integrations from four state‒of‒the‒art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, we show that the observed Antarctic sea ice trend falls well within the distribution of trends arising naturally in the system, and that the forced response in the models is small compared to the natural variability. From this, we conclude that it may prove difficult to attribute the observed trends in total Antarctic sea ice to anthropogenic forcings, although some regional features might be easier to explain. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice Columbia University: Academic Commons Antarctic |
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Open Polar |
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Columbia University: Academic Commons |
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ftcolumbiauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Atmosphere Oceanography Climatic changes |
spellingShingle |
Atmosphere Oceanography Climatic changes Polvani, Lorenzo M. Smith, Karen L. Can Natural Variability Explain Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends? New Modeling Evidence from CMIP5 |
topic_facet |
Atmosphere Oceanography Climatic changes |
description |
The recent observed positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent are at odds with the expectation of melting sea ice in a warming world. More problematic yet, climate models indicate that sea ice should decrease around Antarctica in response to both increasing greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion. The resolution of this puzzle, we suggest, may lie in the large natural variability of the coupled atmosphere‒ocean‒sea‒ice system. Contrasting forced and control integrations from four state‒of‒the‒art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, we show that the observed Antarctic sea ice trend falls well within the distribution of trends arising naturally in the system, and that the forced response in the models is small compared to the natural variability. From this, we conclude that it may prove difficult to attribute the observed trends in total Antarctic sea ice to anthropogenic forcings, although some regional features might be easier to explain. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Polvani, Lorenzo M. Smith, Karen L. |
author_facet |
Polvani, Lorenzo M. Smith, Karen L. |
author_sort |
Polvani, Lorenzo M. |
title |
Can Natural Variability Explain Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends? New Modeling Evidence from CMIP5 |
title_short |
Can Natural Variability Explain Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends? New Modeling Evidence from CMIP5 |
title_full |
Can Natural Variability Explain Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends? New Modeling Evidence from CMIP5 |
title_fullStr |
Can Natural Variability Explain Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends? New Modeling Evidence from CMIP5 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Can Natural Variability Explain Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends? New Modeling Evidence from CMIP5 |
title_sort |
can natural variability explain observed antarctic sea ice trends? new modeling evidence from cmip5 |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.7916/D8GF14PV |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.7916/D8GF14PV |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7916/D8GF14PV |
_version_ |
1766252756129021952 |