Diagnosis of Anomalous Winter Temperatures over the Eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Niño
The eastern United States experienced an unusually cold winter season during the 2002/03 El Niño event. The U.S. seasonal forecasts did not suggest an enhanced likelihood for below-normal temperatures over the eastern United States in that season. A postmortem analysis examining the observed tempera...
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ftcolumbiauniv:oai:academiccommons.columbia.edu:10.7916/D8B8581J 2023-05-15T17:29:54+02:00 Diagnosis of Anomalous Winter Temperatures over the Eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Niño Goddard, Lisa M. Kumar, Arun Hoerling, Martin P. Barnston, Anthony G. 2006 https://doi.org/10.7916/D8B8581J English eng American Meteorological Society https://doi.org/10.7916/D8B8581J Long-range weather forecasts North Atlantic oscillation Atmosphere Articles 2006 ftcolumbiauniv https://doi.org/10.7916/D8B8581J 2019-04-04T08:14:19Z The eastern United States experienced an unusually cold winter season during the 2002/03 El Niño event. The U.S. seasonal forecasts did not suggest an enhanced likelihood for below-normal temperatures over the eastern United States in that season. A postmortem analysis examining the observed temperatures and the associated forecast is motivated by two fundamental questions: what are these temperature anomalies attributable to, and to what extent were these temperature anomalies predictable? The results suggest that the extreme seasonal temperatures experienced in the eastern United States during December–February (DJF) 2002/03 can be attributed to a combination of several constructively interfering factors that include El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, a persistent positive Pacific–North American (PNA) mode, a persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode, and persistent snow cover over the northeastern United States. According to the simulations and predictions from several dynamical atmospheric models, which were not rigorously included in the U.S. forecast, much of the observed temperature pattern was potentially predictable. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Columbia University: Academic Commons Pacific |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Columbia University: Academic Commons |
op_collection_id |
ftcolumbiauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Long-range weather forecasts North Atlantic oscillation Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
Long-range weather forecasts North Atlantic oscillation Atmosphere Goddard, Lisa M. Kumar, Arun Hoerling, Martin P. Barnston, Anthony G. Diagnosis of Anomalous Winter Temperatures over the Eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Niño |
topic_facet |
Long-range weather forecasts North Atlantic oscillation Atmosphere |
description |
The eastern United States experienced an unusually cold winter season during the 2002/03 El Niño event. The U.S. seasonal forecasts did not suggest an enhanced likelihood for below-normal temperatures over the eastern United States in that season. A postmortem analysis examining the observed temperatures and the associated forecast is motivated by two fundamental questions: what are these temperature anomalies attributable to, and to what extent were these temperature anomalies predictable? The results suggest that the extreme seasonal temperatures experienced in the eastern United States during December–February (DJF) 2002/03 can be attributed to a combination of several constructively interfering factors that include El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, a persistent positive Pacific–North American (PNA) mode, a persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode, and persistent snow cover over the northeastern United States. According to the simulations and predictions from several dynamical atmospheric models, which were not rigorously included in the U.S. forecast, much of the observed temperature pattern was potentially predictable. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Goddard, Lisa M. Kumar, Arun Hoerling, Martin P. Barnston, Anthony G. |
author_facet |
Goddard, Lisa M. Kumar, Arun Hoerling, Martin P. Barnston, Anthony G. |
author_sort |
Goddard, Lisa M. |
title |
Diagnosis of Anomalous Winter Temperatures over the Eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Niño |
title_short |
Diagnosis of Anomalous Winter Temperatures over the Eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Niño |
title_full |
Diagnosis of Anomalous Winter Temperatures over the Eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Niño |
title_fullStr |
Diagnosis of Anomalous Winter Temperatures over the Eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Niño |
title_full_unstemmed |
Diagnosis of Anomalous Winter Temperatures over the Eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Niño |
title_sort |
diagnosis of anomalous winter temperatures over the eastern united states during the 2002/03 el niño |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.7916/D8B8581J |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.7916/D8B8581J |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7916/D8B8581J |
_version_ |
1766125131432722432 |