Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts
Using the historical Atlantic tropical cyclone record, this study examines the empirical relationships between climate state variables and Atlantic tropical cyclone counts. The state variables considered as predictors include indices of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Northern Atlantic Oscillat...
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ftcolumbiauniv:oai:academiccommons.columbia.edu:10.7916/D80G3J9N 2023-05-15T17:29:54+02:00 Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts Camargo, Suzana J. Kossin, James P. Evans, Jenni L. Kozar, Michael E. Mann, Michael E. 2012 https://doi.org/10.7916/D80G3J9N English eng https://doi.org/10.7916/D80G3J9N Atmosphere Meteorology Articles 2012 ftcolumbiauniv https://doi.org/10.7916/D80G3J9N 2019-04-04T08:12:47Z Using the historical Atlantic tropical cyclone record, this study examines the empirical relationships between climate state variables and Atlantic tropical cyclone counts. The state variables considered as predictors include indices of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Northern Atlantic Oscillation, and both “local” and “relative” measures of Main Development Region sea surface temperature. Other predictors considered include indices measuring the Atlantic Meridional Mode and the West African monsoon. Using all of the potential predictors in a forward stepwise Poisson regression, we examine the relationships between tropical cyclone counts and climate state variables. As a further extension on past studies, both basin-wide named storm counts and cluster analysis time series representing distinct flavors of tropical cyclones, are modeled. A wide variety of cross validation metrics reveal that basin-wide counts or sums over appropriately chosen clusters may be more skillfully modeled than the individual cluster series. Ultimately, the most skillful models typically share three predictors: indices for the main development region sea surface temperatures, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Columbia University: Academic Commons |
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Open Polar |
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Columbia University: Academic Commons |
op_collection_id |
ftcolumbiauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Atmosphere Meteorology |
spellingShingle |
Atmosphere Meteorology Camargo, Suzana J. Kossin, James P. Evans, Jenni L. Kozar, Michael E. Mann, Michael E. Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts |
topic_facet |
Atmosphere Meteorology |
description |
Using the historical Atlantic tropical cyclone record, this study examines the empirical relationships between climate state variables and Atlantic tropical cyclone counts. The state variables considered as predictors include indices of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Northern Atlantic Oscillation, and both “local” and “relative” measures of Main Development Region sea surface temperature. Other predictors considered include indices measuring the Atlantic Meridional Mode and the West African monsoon. Using all of the potential predictors in a forward stepwise Poisson regression, we examine the relationships between tropical cyclone counts and climate state variables. As a further extension on past studies, both basin-wide named storm counts and cluster analysis time series representing distinct flavors of tropical cyclones, are modeled. A wide variety of cross validation metrics reveal that basin-wide counts or sums over appropriately chosen clusters may be more skillfully modeled than the individual cluster series. Ultimately, the most skillful models typically share three predictors: indices for the main development region sea surface temperatures, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Camargo, Suzana J. Kossin, James P. Evans, Jenni L. Kozar, Michael E. Mann, Michael E. |
author_facet |
Camargo, Suzana J. Kossin, James P. Evans, Jenni L. Kozar, Michael E. Mann, Michael E. |
author_sort |
Camargo, Suzana J. |
title |
Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts |
title_short |
Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts |
title_full |
Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts |
title_fullStr |
Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts |
title_sort |
stratified statistical models of north atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.7916/D80G3J9N |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.7916/D80G3J9N |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7916/D80G3J9N |
_version_ |
1766125131232444416 |