Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Leading to Extended Seasonal Predictability of Summer North Atlantic Oscillation and Boreal Climate
The boreal summer climate is of significant societal importance and is trending toward increased risks of extreme climate events such as heatwaves. The summer North Atlantic Oscillation, as the primary mode of atmospheric variability in the northern hemisphere, has been long considered lacking predi...
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ftcolumbiauniv:oai:academiccommons.columbia.edu:10.7916/4jcr-y080 2023-05-15T17:25:35+02:00 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Leading to Extended Seasonal Predictability of Summer North Atlantic Oscillation and Boreal Climate Wang, Lei Ting, Mingfang 2022 https://doi.org/10.7916/4jcr-y080 English eng https://doi.org/10.7916/4jcr-y080 North Atlantic oscillation Atmospheric circulation Climatic changes Climatology Articles 2022 ftcolumbiauniv https://doi.org/10.7916/4jcr-y080 2023-01-21T23:19:53Z The boreal summer climate is of significant societal importance and is trending toward increased risks of extreme climate events such as heatwaves. The summer North Atlantic Oscillation, as the primary mode of atmospheric variability in the northern hemisphere, has been long considered lacking predictability on seasonal time scales. Here we show that the summer North Atlantic Oscillation is predictable with a 2-month lead for the recent decades. The primary predictor is the March North Atlantic jet strength, which is correlated with the summer North Atlantic Oscillation index at a correlation coefficient of 0.66 over 1979–2018. Spring stratosphere-troposphere coupling plays a critical role in this extended predictability from spring to summer, in contrast to the common knowledge that this dynamical coupling is relatively inactive outside the winter season. These results may bring sound prospects for summer seasonal prediction of boreal climate that benefits the energy and public health sectors. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Columbia University: Academic Commons |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Columbia University: Academic Commons |
op_collection_id |
ftcolumbiauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
North Atlantic oscillation Atmospheric circulation Climatic changes Climatology |
spellingShingle |
North Atlantic oscillation Atmospheric circulation Climatic changes Climatology Wang, Lei Ting, Mingfang Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Leading to Extended Seasonal Predictability of Summer North Atlantic Oscillation and Boreal Climate |
topic_facet |
North Atlantic oscillation Atmospheric circulation Climatic changes Climatology |
description |
The boreal summer climate is of significant societal importance and is trending toward increased risks of extreme climate events such as heatwaves. The summer North Atlantic Oscillation, as the primary mode of atmospheric variability in the northern hemisphere, has been long considered lacking predictability on seasonal time scales. Here we show that the summer North Atlantic Oscillation is predictable with a 2-month lead for the recent decades. The primary predictor is the March North Atlantic jet strength, which is correlated with the summer North Atlantic Oscillation index at a correlation coefficient of 0.66 over 1979–2018. Spring stratosphere-troposphere coupling plays a critical role in this extended predictability from spring to summer, in contrast to the common knowledge that this dynamical coupling is relatively inactive outside the winter season. These results may bring sound prospects for summer seasonal prediction of boreal climate that benefits the energy and public health sectors. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wang, Lei Ting, Mingfang |
author_facet |
Wang, Lei Ting, Mingfang |
author_sort |
Wang, Lei |
title |
Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Leading to Extended Seasonal Predictability of Summer North Atlantic Oscillation and Boreal Climate |
title_short |
Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Leading to Extended Seasonal Predictability of Summer North Atlantic Oscillation and Boreal Climate |
title_full |
Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Leading to Extended Seasonal Predictability of Summer North Atlantic Oscillation and Boreal Climate |
title_fullStr |
Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Leading to Extended Seasonal Predictability of Summer North Atlantic Oscillation and Boreal Climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Leading to Extended Seasonal Predictability of Summer North Atlantic Oscillation and Boreal Climate |
title_sort |
stratosphere-troposphere coupling leading to extended seasonal predictability of summer north atlantic oscillation and boreal climate |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.7916/4jcr-y080 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.7916/4jcr-y080 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7916/4jcr-y080 |
_version_ |
1766117061172396032 |