Is spatial autocorrelation introducing biases in the apparent accuracy of paleoclimatic reconstructions?
International audience We address the issue of spatial autocorrelation, an occurrence that may introduce biases in the evaluation of the performance of transfer functions, by using two fundamentally different approaches, one based on calibration (weighted averaging partial least squares regressions;...
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ftcollegfrance:oai:HAL:hal-01457752v1 2024-06-23T07:55:14+00:00 Is spatial autocorrelation introducing biases in the apparent accuracy of paleoclimatic reconstructions? Guiot, Joel Vernal, Anne, De Centre Européen de Recherche et d'Enseignement des Géosciences de l'Environnement (CEREGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2011-07 https://hal.science/hal-01457752 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.04.022 en eng HAL CCSD Elsevier info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.04.022 hal-01457752 https://hal.science/hal-01457752 doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.04.022 ISSN: 0277-3791 EISSN: 1873-457X Quaternary Science Reviews https://hal.science/hal-01457752 Quaternary Science Reviews, 2011, 30 (15-16), pp.1965-1972. ⟨10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.04.022⟩ [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2011 ftcollegfrance https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.04.022 2024-06-13T23:41:08Z International audience We address the issue of spatial autocorrelation, an occurrence that may introduce biases in the evaluation of the performance of transfer functions, by using two fundamentally different approaches, one based on calibration (weighted averaging partial least squares regressions; WA-PLS) and the other based on similarities (modern analogue technique; MAT). The tests were made after spatial standardization of 700 North Atlantic surface data points, which include 29 dinocyst taxa and 4 climate parameters. The evaluation of transfer function performance was made by defining a verification dataset that was gradually isolated from the calibration or comparison datasets. Although strong spatial autocorrelation characterizes the original climate parameter distribution, the results show that the spatial structure of data has relatively low effect on the calculation of the error of prediction. They also show that the performances of MAT are generally better than those of WA-PLS, with lower error of prediction. The better performance of MAT in the present study can be explained by the non-modal distribution of salinity and temperature in the studied marine environments, which is not appropriate for the application of WA-PLS. The two methods yield equivalent results about the spatial structure of the residuals based on empirical semi-variograms. The analyses we performed include the comparison of reconstructions based on original raw data and gridded data. Results suggest that the gridding of the reference database may reduce the noise and thus improve the performance of the techniques. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Collège de France: HAL Quaternary Science Reviews 30 15-16 1965 1972 |
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Collège de France: HAL |
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English |
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[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
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[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Guiot, Joel Vernal, Anne, De Is spatial autocorrelation introducing biases in the apparent accuracy of paleoclimatic reconstructions? |
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[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience We address the issue of spatial autocorrelation, an occurrence that may introduce biases in the evaluation of the performance of transfer functions, by using two fundamentally different approaches, one based on calibration (weighted averaging partial least squares regressions; WA-PLS) and the other based on similarities (modern analogue technique; MAT). The tests were made after spatial standardization of 700 North Atlantic surface data points, which include 29 dinocyst taxa and 4 climate parameters. The evaluation of transfer function performance was made by defining a verification dataset that was gradually isolated from the calibration or comparison datasets. Although strong spatial autocorrelation characterizes the original climate parameter distribution, the results show that the spatial structure of data has relatively low effect on the calculation of the error of prediction. They also show that the performances of MAT are generally better than those of WA-PLS, with lower error of prediction. The better performance of MAT in the present study can be explained by the non-modal distribution of salinity and temperature in the studied marine environments, which is not appropriate for the application of WA-PLS. The two methods yield equivalent results about the spatial structure of the residuals based on empirical semi-variograms. The analyses we performed include the comparison of reconstructions based on original raw data and gridded data. Results suggest that the gridding of the reference database may reduce the noise and thus improve the performance of the techniques. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
author2 |
Centre Européen de Recherche et d'Enseignement des Géosciences de l'Environnement (CEREGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Guiot, Joel Vernal, Anne, De |
author_facet |
Guiot, Joel Vernal, Anne, De |
author_sort |
Guiot, Joel |
title |
Is spatial autocorrelation introducing biases in the apparent accuracy of paleoclimatic reconstructions? |
title_short |
Is spatial autocorrelation introducing biases in the apparent accuracy of paleoclimatic reconstructions? |
title_full |
Is spatial autocorrelation introducing biases in the apparent accuracy of paleoclimatic reconstructions? |
title_fullStr |
Is spatial autocorrelation introducing biases in the apparent accuracy of paleoclimatic reconstructions? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Is spatial autocorrelation introducing biases in the apparent accuracy of paleoclimatic reconstructions? |
title_sort |
is spatial autocorrelation introducing biases in the apparent accuracy of paleoclimatic reconstructions? |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01457752 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.04.022 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0277-3791 EISSN: 1873-457X Quaternary Science Reviews https://hal.science/hal-01457752 Quaternary Science Reviews, 2011, 30 (15-16), pp.1965-1972. ⟨10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.04.022⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.04.022 hal-01457752 https://hal.science/hal-01457752 doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.04.022 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.04.022 |
container_title |
Quaternary Science Reviews |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
15-16 |
container_start_page |
1965 |
op_container_end_page |
1972 |
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1802647725311787008 |