Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios
Ice shelves modulate Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise and thereby represent a critical, climate-sensitive interface between the Antarctic ice sheet and the global ocean. Following rapid atmospheric warming over the past decades, Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have progressively retreated,...
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ftclarkuniv:oai:commons.clarku.edu:faculty_geography-1210 2023-09-05T13:13:49+02:00 Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios Trusel, Luke D. Frey, Karen E. Das, Sarah B. Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Kuipers Munneke, Peter Van Meijgaard, Erik Van Den Broeke, Michiel R. 2015-01-01T08:00:00Z https://commons.clarku.edu/faculty_geography/211 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2563 unknown Clark Digital Commons https://commons.clarku.edu/faculty_geography/211 doi:10.1038/ngeo2563 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2563 Geography air temperature climate modeling global ocean ice sheet ice shelf ice-ocean interaction sea level change trajectory Climate Oceanography text 2015 ftclarkuniv https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2563 2023-08-14T06:15:24Z Ice shelves modulate Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise and thereby represent a critical, climate-sensitive interface between the Antarctic ice sheet and the global ocean. Following rapid atmospheric warming over the past decades, Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have progressively retreated, at times catastrophically. This decay supports hypotheses of thermal limits of viability for ice shelves via surface melt forcing. Here we use a polar-adapted regional climate model and satellite observations to quantify the nonlinear relationship between surface melting and summer air temperature. Combining observations and multimodel simulations, we examine melt evolution and intensification before observed ice shelf collapse on the Antarctic Peninsula. We then assess the twenty-first-century evolution of surface melt across Antarctica under intermediate and high emissions climate scenarios. Our projections reveal a scenario-independent doubling of Antarctic-wide melt by 2050. Between 2050 and 2100, however, significant divergence in melt occurs between the two climate scenarios. Under the high emissions pathway by 2100, melt on several ice shelves approaches or surpasses intensities that have historically been associated with ice shelf collapse, at least on the northeast Antarctic Peninsula. Text Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Clark University: Clark Digital Commons Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula The Antarctic Nature Geoscience 8 12 927 932 |
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Open Polar |
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Clark University: Clark Digital Commons |
op_collection_id |
ftclarkuniv |
language |
unknown |
topic |
air temperature climate modeling global ocean ice sheet ice shelf ice-ocean interaction sea level change trajectory Climate Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
air temperature climate modeling global ocean ice sheet ice shelf ice-ocean interaction sea level change trajectory Climate Oceanography Trusel, Luke D. Frey, Karen E. Das, Sarah B. Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Kuipers Munneke, Peter Van Meijgaard, Erik Van Den Broeke, Michiel R. Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios |
topic_facet |
air temperature climate modeling global ocean ice sheet ice shelf ice-ocean interaction sea level change trajectory Climate Oceanography |
description |
Ice shelves modulate Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise and thereby represent a critical, climate-sensitive interface between the Antarctic ice sheet and the global ocean. Following rapid atmospheric warming over the past decades, Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have progressively retreated, at times catastrophically. This decay supports hypotheses of thermal limits of viability for ice shelves via surface melt forcing. Here we use a polar-adapted regional climate model and satellite observations to quantify the nonlinear relationship between surface melting and summer air temperature. Combining observations and multimodel simulations, we examine melt evolution and intensification before observed ice shelf collapse on the Antarctic Peninsula. We then assess the twenty-first-century evolution of surface melt across Antarctica under intermediate and high emissions climate scenarios. Our projections reveal a scenario-independent doubling of Antarctic-wide melt by 2050. Between 2050 and 2100, however, significant divergence in melt occurs between the two climate scenarios. Under the high emissions pathway by 2100, melt on several ice shelves approaches or surpasses intensities that have historically been associated with ice shelf collapse, at least on the northeast Antarctic Peninsula. |
format |
Text |
author |
Trusel, Luke D. Frey, Karen E. Das, Sarah B. Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Kuipers Munneke, Peter Van Meijgaard, Erik Van Den Broeke, Michiel R. |
author_facet |
Trusel, Luke D. Frey, Karen E. Das, Sarah B. Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Kuipers Munneke, Peter Van Meijgaard, Erik Van Den Broeke, Michiel R. |
author_sort |
Trusel, Luke D. |
title |
Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios |
title_short |
Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios |
title_full |
Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios |
title_sort |
divergent trajectories of antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios |
publisher |
Clark Digital Commons |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://commons.clarku.edu/faculty_geography/211 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2563 |
geographic |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
op_source |
Geography |
op_relation |
https://commons.clarku.edu/faculty_geography/211 doi:10.1038/ngeo2563 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2563 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2563 |
container_title |
Nature Geoscience |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
927 |
op_container_end_page |
932 |
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1776204975204990976 |