Detecting a potential collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline
Many climate models predict a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) as a result of anthropogenic climate change. The economic damages attending such a global change may be significant. Detecting a THC collapse --- should it happen in the future --- would presumably affect cli...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.9.9702 2023-05-15T17:27:44+02:00 Detecting a potential collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline Circulation Implications For Curtis Deutsch Matthew G. Hall David F. Bradford Klaus Keller The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.9.9702 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/keller_etal_snowmass_02.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.9.9702 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/keller_etal_snowmass_02.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/keller_etal_snowmass_02.pdf Bayesian analysis North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T19:44:26Z Many climate models predict a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) as a result of anthropogenic climate change. The economic damages attending such a global change may be significant. Detecting a THC collapse --- should it happen in the future --- would presumably affect climate policy. We argue that the present ocean observation system would detect a change in the THC intensity only after the point at which climate policy would be able to respond with effective mitigation. This is because the present ocean observation system observes too infrequently and the inferred ocean circulation is too uncertain. Our analysis shows, however, that a THC change could be detected in time to be useful for climate policy by making more frequent observations. A simple cost-benefit analysis suggests that the benefits of such an improved ocean observation system would considerably exceed the costs. Text North Atlantic North atlantic Thermohaline circulation Unknown |
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English |
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Bayesian analysis North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation |
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Bayesian analysis North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Circulation Implications For Curtis Deutsch Matthew G. Hall David F. Bradford Klaus Keller Detecting a potential collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline |
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Bayesian analysis North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation |
description |
Many climate models predict a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) as a result of anthropogenic climate change. The economic damages attending such a global change may be significant. Detecting a THC collapse --- should it happen in the future --- would presumably affect climate policy. We argue that the present ocean observation system would detect a change in the THC intensity only after the point at which climate policy would be able to respond with effective mitigation. This is because the present ocean observation system observes too infrequently and the inferred ocean circulation is too uncertain. Our analysis shows, however, that a THC change could be detected in time to be useful for climate policy by making more frequent observations. A simple cost-benefit analysis suggests that the benefits of such an improved ocean observation system would considerably exceed the costs. |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Circulation Implications For Curtis Deutsch Matthew G. Hall David F. Bradford Klaus Keller |
author_facet |
Circulation Implications For Curtis Deutsch Matthew G. Hall David F. Bradford Klaus Keller |
author_sort |
Circulation Implications For |
title |
Detecting a potential collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline |
title_short |
Detecting a potential collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline |
title_full |
Detecting a potential collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline |
title_fullStr |
Detecting a potential collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline |
title_full_unstemmed |
Detecting a potential collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline |
title_sort |
detecting a potential collapse of the north atlantic thermohaline |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.9.9702 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/keller_etal_snowmass_02.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North atlantic Thermohaline circulation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North atlantic Thermohaline circulation |
op_source |
http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/keller_etal_snowmass_02.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.9.9702 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/keller_etal_snowmass_02.pdf |
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Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766120002332655616 |