DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0290-5 The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold
trigger threshold responses of the climate system. One relevant example of such a potential threshold response is a shutdown of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Numerous studies have analyzed the problem of early MOC change detection (i.e., detection before the forcing ha...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.80.4525 2023-05-15T17:34:46+02:00 DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0290-5 The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold Clim Dyn Klaus Keller Æ David Mcinerney K. Keller D. Mcinerney The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2006 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.80.4525 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/Keller_McInerney_cd_07.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.80.4525 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/Keller_McInerney_cd_07.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/Keller_McInerney_cd_07.pdf text 2006 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T19:19:30Z trigger threshold responses of the climate system. One relevant example of such a potential threshold response is a shutdown of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Numerous studies have analyzed the problem of early MOC change detection (i.e., detection before the forcing has committed the system to a threshold response). Here we analyze the early MOC prediction problem. To this end, we virtually deploy an MOC observation system into a simple model that mimics potential future MOC responses and analyze the timing of confident detection and prediction. Our analysis suggests that a confident prediction of a potential threshold response can require century time scales, considerably longer that the time required for confident detection. The signal enabling early prediction of an approaching MOC threshold in our model study is associated with the rate at which the MOC intensity decreases for a given forcing. A faster MOC weakening implies a higher MOC sensitivity to forcing. An MOC sensitivity exceeding a critical level results in a threshold response. Determining whether an observed MOC trend in our model differs in a statistically significant way from an unforced scenario (the detection problem) imposes lower requirements on an observation system than the determination whether the MOC will shut down in the future (the prediction problem). As a result, the virtual observation systems designed in our model for early detection of MOC changes might well fail at the task of early and confident prediction. Transferring this conclusion to the real world requires a considerably refined MOC Text North Atlantic Unknown |
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trigger threshold responses of the climate system. One relevant example of such a potential threshold response is a shutdown of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Numerous studies have analyzed the problem of early MOC change detection (i.e., detection before the forcing has committed the system to a threshold response). Here we analyze the early MOC prediction problem. To this end, we virtually deploy an MOC observation system into a simple model that mimics potential future MOC responses and analyze the timing of confident detection and prediction. Our analysis suggests that a confident prediction of a potential threshold response can require century time scales, considerably longer that the time required for confident detection. The signal enabling early prediction of an approaching MOC threshold in our model study is associated with the rate at which the MOC intensity decreases for a given forcing. A faster MOC weakening implies a higher MOC sensitivity to forcing. An MOC sensitivity exceeding a critical level results in a threshold response. Determining whether an observed MOC trend in our model differs in a statistically significant way from an unforced scenario (the detection problem) imposes lower requirements on an observation system than the determination whether the MOC will shut down in the future (the prediction problem). As a result, the virtual observation systems designed in our model for early detection of MOC changes might well fail at the task of early and confident prediction. Transferring this conclusion to the real world requires a considerably refined MOC |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Clim Dyn Klaus Keller Æ David Mcinerney K. Keller D. Mcinerney |
spellingShingle |
Clim Dyn Klaus Keller Æ David Mcinerney K. Keller D. Mcinerney DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0290-5 The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold |
author_facet |
Clim Dyn Klaus Keller Æ David Mcinerney K. Keller D. Mcinerney |
author_sort |
Clim Dyn |
title |
DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0290-5 The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold |
title_short |
DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0290-5 The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold |
title_full |
DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0290-5 The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold |
title_fullStr |
DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0290-5 The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold |
title_full_unstemmed |
DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0290-5 The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold |
title_sort |
doi 10.1007/s00382-007-0290-5 the dynamics of learning about a climate threshold |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.80.4525 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/Keller_McInerney_cd_07.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/Keller_McInerney_cd_07.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.80.4525 http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/Keller_McInerney_cd_07.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766133700892819456 |